S&P500
The US market remains under strong pressure.The main US indices tried to show gains on Wednesday but closed the day near lows. The Dow added 0.2%, the NASDAQ remained at the same level, and the S&P500 increased by 0.2%.The S&P 500 is trading at 4,184. It remains in the range of 4,160-4,220.In the US durable goods orders rose by 0.8% for the month. Excluding cars, the increase was 1.1%.Ford's net loss for the year was $3bn, compared to a profit a year earlier.Oil is holding above $100 on fresh evidence of worsening oil and gas supplies from Russia. The EU is discussing a 6th package of sanctions against the Kremlin. It includes restrictions on oil from Russia. Gas on the ICE exchange in Europe is holding above $1,100.Exxon Mobil said its Russian had declared force majeure for its Sakhalin-1 operations due to sanctions on Russia.Gazprom announced yesterday that it was cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to their refusal to pay in roubles. Poland announced that it was completely refusing gas from Russia. Bulgaria threatened to cut off gas transit from Gazprom through its territory to Serbia and Hungary. However, cutting off transit is a violation of contracts. Bulgaria has very low gas reserves. Gas storage is only 17% full.The US GDP report for Q1 will be released today. The forecasts are very weak. However, what matters is how the market will react. We are near the lows of the year for the indices, and the market will probably try to bounce back up. However, so far the US economy is in good shape. The market is pressured by the Fed rate hike and a general tightening of financial conditions as early as next week. One can cautiously open long positions with small volume.The US dollar index is trading at 103.35. It is likely to remain in the range of 103.00-103.60.The dollar gained around 3% on the index in just one week. The Euro has fallen to long-term lows. Still, I would advise not to be in a hurry to buy EUR/USD. It makes sense to ignore the first strong move at least on the H4 upside and then buy with a pullback as long as there is no reversal pattern on the EUR charts.The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2820. It is likely to stay in the range of 1.2700 - 1.2900.The pair faces resistance near the 1.2900 level. A strong bounce down on US data is possible.Traders are waiting for the US GDP report. There could be a surge in the US market in case of unexpectedly strong data. However, forecasts are very weak. One could buy the S&P500.The conflict in Eastern Europe is at its peak. Transnistria is not yet appealing to the Kremlin for military assistance. However, Russia overnight struck a second blow on a bridge strategically important to Ukraine and Transnistria.Russia's attacks in eastern Ukraine and the south are not abating. A grouping of Russian troops is continuously attacking. However, progress is slow due to the active defense of Ukrainian forces.The US and 40 allies at the Ramstein base in Germany adopted a big aid package for Ukraine and agreed to meet at least once a month. The Lend-Lease Act for Ukraine is being voted on in the US Congress today. It will greatly speed up and facilitate aid to Kiev. The US has passed a law allowing the US to seize property of sanctioned individuals and entities and sell it. The funds will be used to help Ukraine. A similar resolution has been proposed in the PACE.Vladimir Putin said yesterday that he was ready to launch a lightning strike on those countries that intervene in the conflict in Ukraine. The US has said the response in the event of an attack on the US and allies would be devastating.Ukraine's southern Kherson region will start using the Russian ruble from May 1. The so-called 'referendum' on secession from Kiev is being planned in mid-May.Most experts describe the days before May 9 as decisive. Negotiations are at a standstill. Putin has said that a peace deal is possible only if Kiev recognises the DPR-LPR as independent and Crimea as Russian. This is totally unacceptable to Kiev at the moment.