S&P500
The US market is under heavy pressure.The main US indices showed another strong fall on Tuesday. The Dow Jones shed 2.4%, the NASDAQ Composite declined by 4%, and the S&P500 decreased by 2.8%.The S&P500 is at 4,175, staying in the 4,140–4,210 range.The US market has already fallen -7% in less than a week. This is a lot for the US market. The rally has been cancelled. Buying has been cancelled too. Still, the market will catch the lows of late February and early March, then maybe it will bounce. Aggressors can try to open long positions with a small stop. Investors can open long positions with small volume.Oil is holding above $100. Brent is trading at $105 per barrel. An important reason for high oil prices is restrictions on Russian oil exports to Europe. Despite the fact that sanctions against Russian oil exports to the EU have not been imposed yet, major traders are already refusing to buy. Sales problems were reported by Rosneft. US oil inventories for the week rose above forecast, by 4.8m barrels.Gazprom is stopping exports to Poland and Bulgaria as of April 27. The reasons have not been announced, but it is probably because these countries refuse to pay for gas in roubles, as demanded by the Kremlin.General Motors net profit dropped by 2.7% in Q1. Alphabet's profit fell by 8%. Visa's profit rose sharply. The increase was 24%. Microsoft's profit for 9 months is up by 25%.In the US durable goods orders rose by 0.8% for the month. Excluding cars, the increase was 1.1%.The consumer optimism index was 107.The US dollar index is trading at 102.40. It is likely to remain in the range of 102.10-102.60.The dollar was up 1% again yesterday on the index. This is a new high for the year. The dollar is rising on expectations of a strong Fed policy tightening. The US market is falling for the same reason.The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2790. It is likely to stay in the range of 1.2700 - 1.2900.The pair is moving up quickly on the rising US dollar and on expectations of higher US government bond yields.Traders are waiting for the US GDP report on Thursday. Forecasts are very weak. The market is near long-term lows. All waiting for a strong bounce upwards and then we can open long positions.The Kremlin's big offensive is a week away. Already today we can say that Ukraine is likely to remain an independent state with a clear orientation towards the EU and the West. Western support for Ukraine has increased radically in all forms. Yesterday 40 defence ministers from various countries at the NATO Ramstein base in Germany spoke about support for Ukraine and made concrete decisions about the amount of aid. NATO is dramatically strengthening its position in eastern Europe. Even countries that have been neutral for decades, Sweden and Finland, are preparing applications to join NATO. And it is precisely the task of "moving NATO away from Russia" that has been one of the Kremlin's main objectives since December 2021. The sanctions have reached an unprecedented level. For example, major Russian IT companies complain to the government that they cannot buy computer servers in particular. There are problems with spare parts for all sorts of machinery, from cars to aircraft. Many types of military equipment produced in Russia require critical parts from "unfriendly" countries.At the same time, the conflict is becoming more and more acute. The Kremlin is trying to make an active offensive. Yesterday there were provocations in Transnistria, which were immediately blamed on Kiev. Kiev clearly does not benefit from a new front. It is straining to defend itself. However, the possible entry of Transnistria into the conflict is a new argument for everyone about the Kremlin's intentions.The UN Secretary General visited Putin in Moscow yesterday. He tried to persuade Putin to agree to a ceasefire. However, this did not succeed. Erdogan, the leader of Turkey, also asked Putin to do the same yesterday. He suggested an urgent meeting between Putin and Zelenski. That, too, proved to be fruitless. Putin said that the Kremlin would only sign peace if Kiev recognised the Russian status of Crimea and Donbass.The conflict is in full swing. Experts estimate that the critical phase will last until May 9.