The key indices of the US stock market - Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - finished Wednesday in different ways. There was no single direction of movement. Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose, and NASDAQ fell. However, there was little news yesterday that would have been able to influence the stock market and change the direction of its movement. Recall that at this time, a new round of corrective movement has begun within the framework of the global correction of 2022. You can call what is happening that way. The fact is that during this year, US rates are expected to rise to at least 2.5%, as well as a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. Both of these processes are "hawkish", which is bad for stocks and indices. Therefore, even despite the growth that was shown by the indices a couple of weeks ago, we continue to expect a powerful fall in the stock market.
The geopolitical conflict in Ukraine is now playing an important role in the pressure on the stock market. But there is very little news coming from the front. At the moment, it is known that the Russian army is advancing along the entire eastern front, but the AFU successfully repels 90% of attacks. If there is the progress of the Russian military in some regions, it is insignificant. Thus, perhaps there is no news from the front because there are no events that could be called "news". In any case, the "battle for Donbas" has begun, which can last from several weeks to several months. Here, the key date may be May 9. Kyiv is confident that the Russian army will try to win one or more local victories by this date so that Russia can declare the complete "denazification" of Mariupol or Melitopol.
Meanwhile, the head of the European Council Charles Michel visited Kyiv. He met with President Zelensky, walked around Khreshchatyk, in general, made the same visit as the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson a week earlier. Vladimir Zelensky thanked for the meeting and said that the issues of the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, which must include restrictions for the oil and gas industry, were discussed with the head of the European Council. It also became known yesterday that Germany is ready to abandon Russian oil by the end of 2022. If this information is not fake, it can become a serious impetus to the refusal of all EU countries from oil from the Russian Federation. Germany continues to be the locomotive of the European economy, so many other EU member states listen to its opinion. President Macron, who may be re-elected for a second term this weekend, has also begun to support oil sanctions. If France and Germany encourage these restrictions, then we can assume that the entire EU approves the oil and gas embargo. This means an energy crisis for the European Union and an almost complete rupture of all economic and business ties with Russia.