Bitcoin has failed to continue its decline over the past few days. Thus, the current wave markup looks ambiguous. There are no questions about it now, but it remains unclear how many waves will be contained inside the upward trend section from January 24? At the moment, three waves have been built, and the last decline in quotes can be either the first wave of a new descending section or wave d, after which the increase will resume within wave e. Therefore, in the current situation, I think the $ 41,384 mark can help, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci. If the market makes a successful attempt to break through this level, it will significantly increase the probability of building the fifth wave of the correction section of the trend. As long as this has not happened, I think that the correction section of the trend can be considered complete.
The offensive of buyers is ending, now the sellers' turn.
I have repeatedly said in my recent articles that I am waiting for a new decline in bitcoin. If you look closely at the picture below, it is obvious that buyers in the market had about 3 months to raise the first cryptocurrency as high as possible, after falling by almost 50% of its value in November-January. However, over these few months, the market has not shown much interest in new bitcoin purchases. Even if the current upward section of the trend turns out to be a five-wave one, then bitcoin can grow to $ 50,000, and then it will still begin to decline under the low of wave C. Thus, now the wave pattern suggests an almost unambiguous decline in bitcoin in the future to the level of $ 30,000 or even significantly lower. Buyers are not buying the main cryptocurrency of the world right now and can simply retreat from the market since they had plenty of time. Why did they stop buying digital gold? First, many investors believe that the upward trend is over. Second is geopolitics, which greatly reduces the prospects for economic growth in many countries of the world. Third, the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, which will take place this year and next and has already been recognized as one of the most aggressive tightenings in the history of the Fed.
Everyone sells, MicroStrategy buys.
Since we are talking about the market, about the cryptocurrency market, if investors sell their coins, then someone should buy them. It seems that now there is only one major buyer left on the market - Michael Saylor and his company MicroStrategy, which has already accumulated 140 thousand bitcoin coins on its balance sheet and continues to buy more. In 2020, the company invested excess funds to buy cryptocurrencies, which looked reasonable enough. The company has decided to risk its funds, which it has the opportunity to lose without serious consequences. However, in 2021, MicroStrategy began issuing bonds for the purchase of bitcoin, taking out loans, and issuing promissory notes. The company began to invest in cryptocurrency no longer its funds. Thus, a further decline in bitcoin quotes will also put pressure on MicroStrategy investors, not all of them believe that they should buy bitcoin so aggressively.
The construction of the downward trend section is completed, it has taken a three-wave form. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the $ 34,238 mark, which corresponds to 50.0% on the senior Fibonacci grid, allowed bitcoin to start building a new upward section, which is also corrective. The only question is, what kind of shape will it take: three-wave or five-wave? In the first case, the decline in quotes has already begun within the first wave of a new downward trend segment with targets located around $ 34,238. The targets of the entire descending set of waves are located much lower. In the second case, the instrument can already start building an e wave with targets of about $ 50,364 from the current price marks. I don't expect the current trend segment to take on an impulsive look. Accordingly, I do not expect a BTC quote above $ 50,364. In the future of the next two or three months, I expect a strong drop in demand for the first cryptocurrency and its decline is much lower than the low of the previous downward trend segment, located at around $ 32,840.