As already mentioned, yesterday the US stock market rose slightly in Wednesday's trading, but in general, it continues to adjust. And this is logical, from our point of view, since inflation in the States continues to grow by leaps and bounds. It is also growing all over the world, energy prices are rising. The military operation in Ukraine continues, so we would conclude that there are now much more reasons for further inflation growth than for its reduction. So far, the Fed has raised the rate only once and abandoned the QE program. In May-June, the rate may be increased two more times by 0.5%, and a decision may also be made to launch the QE program (quantitative tightening). That is, only in the next two months will the Fed begin to tighten monetary policy. Consequently, the first results of the Fed's activities can be assessed no earlier than in 2-3 months. It is during this period that inflation in the States may slow down at least a little.
At the same time, one of the most ardent "hawks" at the Fed, James Bullard, once again said that the time to sit and wait for inflation to begin to decline itself has long passed. Bullard noted that it is impossible to reduce inflation without raising rates, and the Fed should be aggressive in this matter, responding to the highest inflation in 40 years. Recall that Bullard is in favor of raising the key rate by 3% during 2022 alone. Average forecasts suggest that the rate by the end of the year will be 2.0-2.5%.
Meanwhile, parliamentary hearings and debates on NATO membership begin in Finland, which will last for the next few weeks. This was stated by Prime Minister Sanna Marin. At a joint press conference with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Marin said: "We have to analyze everything carefully and are not obliged to make the same decision with Sweden at the same time. A decision on this issue will be made within a few weeks." Recall that Finland and Sweden did not try to join NATO, which was created in 1949, occupying neutrality all this time. However, recent events in Ukraine have very sharply and quickly changed public opinion and the views of politicians on security issues. A Helsinki directly stated that "they had a different opinion about their neighbor." Therefore, the issue of joining NATO can be resolved positively. Another question is: what will the Kremlin do in this case?