The Canadian dollar paired with the US currency was marked at around 1.2402 yesterday. This is a six-month low, which was achieved despite the general strengthening of the greenback. The loonie is showing character again, allowing USD/CAD bears to conduct successful offensive campaigns. And although, according to yesterday's results, bears were forced to retreat from the base of the 24th figure, the downward trend still remains in force - again, despite the strong positions of the US dollar.
The loonie seems to have a certain immunity – among the currencies of the "major" group, the Canadian dollar is the only one who so effectively opposes the greenback. Such stress resistance of the Canadian dollar is due to several factors. First of all, this is the hawkish rate of the Bank of Canada, which tightens the parameters of monetary policy. The position of the Canadian central bank is similar to the position of the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, the Canadian dollar is showing competitiveness relative to its American namesake. The Canadian central bank began to reduce QE in the first half of last year (becoming the first of the G7 central banks to begin gradually curtailing anti-crisis measures), while the Fed only began to normalize monetary policy in November. As for the fate of the interest rate, both the Fed and the Bank of Canada raised it in March this year – by 25 basis points.
To date, central banks are preparing for further rounds of monetary policy tightening. It is noteworthy that both the Bank of Canada and the Fed may raise the interest rate by 50 points at once at the next meetings. Members of the US central bank will sum up the results of the next meeting on May 4, and their colleagues from Canada – a week later, on April 13. On the eve of the April meeting of the Canadian central bank, the loonie is in high demand, as hawkish expectations are "growing by leaps and bounds."
It is worth noting that the market justifiably puts a 50-point rate increase in prices next week. Recent macroeconomic releases of a key nature indicate that inflation in the country is growing at a rapid pace, while unemployment is declining. Thus, the overall consumer price index jumped to 1.0% on a monthly basis (this is the strongest growth rate since 2013), and in annual terms increased to 5.7% (this is the highest value of the indicator since 1991). Core inflation jumped to 4.8% year-on-year, updating the annual high. As for the labor market, positive trends are also recorded here: the unemployment rate in Canada fell immediately to 5.5% (from the previous value of 6.5%): this is the lowest value since February of the year before last.
As many analysts believe, in the short term, inflation will not stop its growth. Ongoing supply chain issues and geopolitical risks will increase price pressures. The return of inflation to the two percent target of 2% will take longer – according to some estimates, up to three years.
The oil market is also making itself felt by "putting a shoulder" to the Canadian dollar. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude futures for delivery in May were trading at $103 per barrel today. New Western sanctions have increased concerns about supply disruptions, while negotiations on Iran's nuclear program have essentially reached an impasse.
Thus, hawkish expectations regarding the further actions of the Canadian central bank and the growth of the oil market are "two whales" on which the loonie is confidently positioned, allowing itself to go against the general market sentiment. Contrary to the US dollar, which is increasing its influence against the background of strengthening anti-risk sentiment.
All this suggests that in the medium term, short positions will be a priority for the pair. Especially ahead of the Bank of Canada's April meeting, which will almost certainly decide on a 50-point rate hike. Most likely, the market will play out the "hawkish scenario" in advance.
From a technical point of view, USD/CAD is in a descending channel. The pair shows a downward trend, which is confirmed by the Ichimoku indicator, which has formed its bearish Parade of Lines signal on the daily chart. Also, the price on some higher timeframes (D1, W1, but except MN) is located between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is in the extended channel. Trend indicators are confirmed by the MACD oscillator, which is in the overbought area. The support level (the target of the downward movement) is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart, which corresponds to the price of 1.2450. In this price area, it would be advisable to lock in profits and take a wait-and-see position.