The GBP/USD pair showed only one thing on Monday – an absolute flat. The volatility of the first trading day of the week was 44 points, which is absolutely miniscule. This value is considered low even for a less volatile euro/dollar pair. And for the pound, it's nothing at all. Thus, it was very difficult to count on making a profit today. It is noteworthy that the pound did not follow the euro's example and did not trade with a decrease. Thus, it becomes unclear as to what basis the markets were trading at today? If due to geopolitics, then the pound should have fallen along with the euro. If on the basis of Friday's US statistics, then again, the pound was also supposed to fall. In general, on the 30-minute TF, it is perfectly clear that the minimum downward bias has been present in the last few days, but it is not possible to call it a "trend". The British currency is slowly but surely moving towards its local lows around 1.3059, but at the same time traders are clearly not sure that it is advisable to sell the pound again at such low price values. Perhaps they are waiting for new data from Ukraine. And if they do, they will most likely wear a negative color, which may allow the pound to resume falling against the dollar.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pairThe movement on the 5-minute timeframe looks a little worse than nothing. The absolute flat is clearly visible. All three trading signals were formed today near the area of 1.3119-1.3126 and the level of 1.3119 was removed from the chart at the end of the day. The first sell signal was formed within 5.5 hours, so it cannot be called strong. Nevertheless, it was possible to try to work it out. The price managed to go down about 20 points, but most likely, novice traders did not have time to set a Stop Loss to breakeven. Then the pair returned to the level of 1.3119 and returned to it once again, bouncing off it three times in total for the day. Thus, there were simply no signals to close the short position. Therefore, the transaction should have been closed manually in the late afternoon. However, in this case it was not possible to make a profit, but there was no loss either. The British currency is also inclined to a new fall, but it is clear that traders need powerful new factors in order to start new short positions on the pair.
How to trade on Tuesday:The pair's downward trend was canceled on the 30-minute TF, but a new upward trend was not formed. The British pound is slowly slipping to the level of 1.3059, and a flat is possible on the higher TF, which will look like a not too weak "swing" on the lower TF: two days down, three up, three down. In general, we can say that there is no lateral movement and trend movement now. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.3000, 1.3042, 1.3059, 1.3126, 1.3156, 1.3210. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction, 20 points should be set to Stop Loss at breakeven. Tomorrow, the UK and America are set to publish indices of business activity in the service sectors. We believe that the ISM index in the US has a theoretical chance of provoking a reaction, but in fact it is unlikely to interest traders so much that they rush to buy or sell the pair after its release. Still, business activity is now far from the most anticipated report.
Basic rules of the trading system:1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.