For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require any additions. The assumed wave d in E is completed, and there should be five waves in total inside the wave E, respectively, as in the case of the euro/dollar instrument, the downward trend section can continue its construction for some time. The assumed wave d in E may take a longer, three-wave form. This is supported by the fact that wave b in E has taken a five-wave extended form. Also in favor of this is an unsuccessful attempt to break the low wave c in E. Thus, the instrument simply could not break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level and now the construction of a new upward wave has begun. This wave can be corrective, internal in the composition of e in E, or it can be the beginning of the wave c-d-E. In the first case, the decline in the British dollar quotes should resume in the near future, in the second case, the instrument may return to the 1.3274 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci. But one way or another, I expect to build a wave e in E.
The dollar is waiting for a failure in the negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by only 15 basis points on April 4, and market activity was very weak - the amplitude was 20 points. Thus, Monday can be put into a liability for a Briton. The absence of any movements did not contribute to the complication or addition of wave markings. Everything remains the same. There will be very little economic news this week, so there is no need to rely on the news background. Based on this, geopolitics is likely to be the main factor that will influence the mood of the market. What can we expect this week? First, new sanctions against Russia by the European Union. Second, is the complication of the military conflict in Ukraine. Both events can lower the demand for the British, as they are dangerous for him. If the EU sanctions against Russia do not look like a factor that can significantly lower the rate of the British dollar, then the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in Ukraine is quite capable.
According to the latest data, Moscow is going to concentrate all its troops in the East of Ukraine. The Kremlin said that the "special operation" is going according to plan and is moving into the second phase. What was the first phase, remains unclear. Kyiv could not be occupied, Kharkiv could not be occupied either, "demilitarized" - even more so. Therefore, Western military experts, whose opinion has to be consulted more and more often, believe that now Moscow will try to expand the borders of the DPR and the LPR and throw all its military forces at it. There was also information about a hidden mobilization in some regions of Russia, thanks to which about 60,000 military personnel are going to be called up for a new stage of the "military operation". Negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow continue, each new round taking place approximately once every two or three days. However, if there was positive news on the negotiations last week, now there is only negative news. The parties cannot resolve the sacramental issues - "whose Crimea?" and "whose Donbas?" - so the negotiations are in danger of disruption.
General conclusions
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the construction of wave E. I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located near the 1.2676 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci, according to the MACD signals "down", since wave E does not look completed yet. Wave d can take a three-wave form and lengthen - wave b turned out exactly like this, but in any case, we should consider the signals "down", and while wave b continues to build, the MACD indicator is mainly rising.
At the higher scale, wave D looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I expect the instrument to continue to decline with targets well below the low of wave C. Wave E should take a five-wave form, so I expect to see the British quotes around the 27th figure.