Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for April 4. COT report. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. The pound has not dealt with Nonfarm

The GBP/USD currency pair traded with low volatility and with a slight downward bias on Friday. Thus, the picture was almost identical to the one we saw for the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, there was still no openly flat. The macroeconomic background was ignored, although the Nonfarm report turned out to be not so bad, and the unemployment rate in the US fell again and reached pre-pandemic levels. However, all that the dollar was capable of was to add literally 30 points... Its fall happened right at the beginning of the US trading session, when US reports were published. Thus, formally, there was a reaction to the statistics. The rest of the time, the pair was flat. First at the European session, then at the US one. There were no important publications and events in the UK on Friday.

The first trading signal for short positions was formed near the critical line. As soon as it was formed, the price was already near the level of 1.3119, so it should not have been worked out. A rebound from the level of 1.3119 is a buy signal, but at the time of its formation, the price was already 10 points from the critical line. Another rebound from Kijun-sen – with the same result as the first one. Therefore, it was possible to work out only the most recent sell signal, when the pair overcame the level of 1.3119. However, after it, the fall in the pair's quotes did not last long, and the price could not reach the next level. Therefore, it was necessary to close the short position manually in the late afternoon. It was possible to earn a maximum of 10 points on it. However, given the weak volatility, there is nothing surprising in this.

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed minimal changes in the mood of major players. For a whole week, the non-commercial group opened only 700 short positions and closed 2,100 long positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,000. Even for the pound, such changes are insignificant. In general, the non-commercial group has almost 2.5 times more contracts for short positions than for longs. This means that the mood of professional traders is now "very bearish". Thus, this is another factor that speaks in favor of the continuation of the fall of the British currency. The situation with COT reports for the pound is completely different than for the euro. According to the pound, the mood of the major players changes every couple of months, and sometimes even faster. At this time, the "non-commercial" net position has already fallen to the levels where the last round of the pound's fall ended (the green line on the first indicator). Thus, we can even assume that in the coming weeks the pound will try to start a new ascent. However, much will again depend on geopolitics and technique. At the moment, the pound has a little more reason to grow than the euro. But there are plenty of factors of the fall.

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 4. An empty calendar of macroeconomic events, a complex fundamental background.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 4. The pound may fall again due to geopolitics.

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on April 4. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

It is clearly visible on the hourly timeframe that the pair has not been able to determine the direction of movement for several weeks. The upward momentum ended very quickly near the level of 1.3175, and at the moment the price is below both lines of the Ichimoku indicator, so a new fall of the pair is preferable. First to the level of 1.3060, then even lower. There is a descending trend line, but it is ambiguous, since the price has tried to overcome it twice and unsuccessfully at both times. We highlight the following important levels on April 4: 1.3000, 1.3060, 1.3119, 1.3175, 1.3222, 1.3273. The Senkou Span B (1.3174) and Kijun-sen (1.3114) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels on the chart that can be used to take profits on transactions. Bank of England Chairman Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak in the UK on Monday. Perhaps this time Bailey will give the market important information, as he has done without it for the last time. Market participants are now interested in whether the British central bank will continue to raise the rate and how many times in 2022? Any hints of tightening monetary policy may provoke a strengthening of the British pound.

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.