According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued the process of falling on Monday and by the end of the day was near the corrective level of 200.0% (1.3071). A new downward trend line has been formed, which characterizes the mood of traders as "bearish". Until the closing of the British quotes above it, I will consider only its fall. Fixing the pair's rate below the level of 200.0% will increase the probability of a further fall towards the next level of 1.2980. In addition to the gas conflict between Europe and the Russian Federation, which does not affect the UK in any way, which even earlier announced that it would abandon Russian gas and oil by the end of the year, there is another important topic now. New negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow have started in Turkey today. It is reported that they will last two days. Traders do not believe at this time that these negotiations can bring success. There is minimal progress, but not on the most important issues.
As I said earlier, Russia is unlikely to give up Crimea and Donbas, and Kyiv insists on its territorial integrity. Therefore, there can be full agreement on all issues except this, but without this stumbling block, there will be no peace agreement. However, if negotiations are underway, then there are still some chances of reaching an agreement. If there is no progress after Tuesday and Wednesday, then the British and European may start falling against the US currency again. The euro and the pound need positive news from Ukraine or across Ukraine. These currencies are still not used by traders as profitable in a crisis. According to the usual information background, there is absolutely nothing to say now. Today, several reports have been released in the UK, which did not have any effect on the mood of traders. In America, there will only be an indicator of consumer confidence, which is also interesting to a few now. Thus, we are waiting for news from Turkey and hope that there will be progress.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a drop to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3044). The rebound of the pair's quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3274). Fixing the pair's exchange rate below the 76.4% level will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2674).
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has changed dramatically again over the last reporting week. The number of long contracts increased in the hands of speculators by only 311, and the number of short contracts increased by 8,494. Thus, the general mood of the major players has become even more "bearish". The ratio between the number of long and short contracts for speculators already corresponds to the real state of things - there are twice as many longs. The British dollar is falling, and the big players are selling the pound more than buying it. Thus, I expect the pound to continue its decline. This can be seen both from geopolitics and from the COT report.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - an indicator of consumer confidence (14-00 UTC).
On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the US and the UK contain almost no important entries. I believe that the influence of the information background will be absent today. However, there may be news from Turkey, where Ukraine and Russia are currently trying to reach an agreement on a truce or at least on the suspension of hostilities.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommended selling the British when closing under the corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3071. This goal has been achieved. New sales - at the close under the level of 76.4% (1.3044) on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2980. I recommend buying the British when rebounding from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3274.