Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
Friday was not the best day for EUR/USD because despite the sell signal in 1.1015, there was no decrease because the MACD line being far from zero limited the downside potential of the pair. Its second test also failed because the pair returned to 1.1015 and fell down even though the signal was to buy. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.
EUR/USD fell on Friday because the reports on Germany's business environment, current situation and economic expectations were much weaker than anticipated. The data on the aggregate M3 money supply, as well as lending in the EU private sector, also hindered by buyers of the euro.
Meanwhile, statements made by Fed representatives provoked a rise in dollar demand as they hinted at a more active increase in interest rates at the next committee meeting.
A deeper decline may be seen in EUR/USD today because there are no statistics that can help euro gain back its positions. But in the afternoon there may be an increase because US data on the foreign trade balance and wholesale stocks could weaken demand for the dollar, provided that the figures were lower than expected.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0966 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1017 (thicker green line on the chart). However, it is a bit difficult to provoke a rally today as pressure is high in risky assets. In any case, when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0934, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0966 and 1.1017.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0934 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0892. Pressure is likely to continue, especially in anticipation of the Fed's aggressive policy and weak data on the eurozone. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0966, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0934 and 1.0892.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.