Last Friday, the euro area trade surplus for March came out - a collapse from -4.8 billion euros to -27.2 billion was shown. This is the worst result in the history of the currency union. The euro closed the day with a loss of 39 points. On the daily chart, the price failed to overcome the level of 1.1121 (28 January low), the Marlin Oscillator did not dare to cross the zero neutral line, remaining in the downward trend territory. In this situation, the price certainly has the opportunity to work out the Fibonacci channel line in the area of 1.1190, since the balance and MACD indicator lines are located near it, creating a magnetic point at this mark.
Consider the situation on the H4 chart. The Marlin Oscillator is turning up from the zero line, the price settled above the balance and MACD lines, and on Friday the balance line played the role of support. With a probability of 60%, the price will continue to grow towards the specified target of 1.1190. To break this trend, the price should go under the MACD line, below the level of 1.0947, which forces traders to delay opening short positions.