Mike Novogratz: Bitcoin needs a break

The technical picture of bitcoin unexpectedly received support on the 4-hour timeframe. Yesterday we talked about the fact that the triangle that has formed in recent weeks is quite formal. This formality lies in the fact that the upper line of the triangle should pass along the second peak, and not along the third. In this case, there would no longer be a triangle. Nevertheless, yesterday and today the price bounced twice from the "formal" upper limit and remained inside the triangle. Thus, perhaps this pattern can still be used in trading. And yesterday showed that even with the help of the Federal Reserve, traders failed to get the cryptocurrency out of the limited range. Now, judging by the picture on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin may start falling to the $37,800 level. Its further movements will depend on which border it manages to overcome.

One of the regular predictors of the future value of bitcoin Mike Novogratz commented on the current situation. According to him, the main factors that hold back the new growth of cryptocurrency are the military operation in Ukraine and the actions of the Fed in relation to monetary policy. Novogratz said that until "there is a pause for bitcoin", it will be very difficult to count on a new explosive growth. "Bitcoin is a whole story that brings people around the world into a community. However, it is very difficult to attract new members to this community if their houses are on fire," Novogratz said. In a difficult geopolitical environment, investors are looking for the safest and least volatile assets, to which bitcoin, of course, does not apply. In addition, Mike predicted the growth of bitcoin to $500,000 over the next five years and expressed confidence that the cryptocurrency could become a ubiquitous means of payment. From our point of view, this forecast is very formal and, in other words, does not make sense. The last 2 years have shown the whole world how quickly absolutely everything can change under the influence of external global factors that cannot be predicted in advance. First - the coronavirus pandemic, now - a military conflict in the center of Europe, which does not know when and how it will end. Thus, making predictions for five years ahead is like saying "in 50 years people will colonize Mars, and the whole world will be divided into four states (like Orwell in the novel 1984). Maybe this will happen, but such a forecast is a finger in the sky.

Bitcoin quotes failed several times to overcome the $45,408 level on the 4-hour timeframe, but at the same time, a new support level of $34,267 appeared, which did not let the price go below it. It is between these levels that consolidation takes place. We believe that at this time there is no reason to expect the cryptocurrency to leave the indicated range. You can trade from its borders or along the borders of the triangle.