In today's review of the dollar/franc currency pair, I will focus more on the technical analysis of this instrument. However, before that, let's briefly talk about the external background and the upcoming important events this week. To be honest, in terms of importance, hardly anything can compare with the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), the results of which will be summed up on Wednesday evening, and half an hour after the Fed's rate decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. I think it's no secret that the markets expect the Fed to raise the refinancing rate by 25 basis points. The most optimistic market participants do not exclude the possibility that the US Central Bank will raise the main interest rate by 50 bps at once.
Of course, expectations of the beginning of the process of tightening the Fed's monetary policy provide significant support to the US dollar, and there is no doubt that this will be a process and a one-time rate increase, judging by the rhetoric of the leadership of the US Central Bank. The US currency is also supported as a protective asset by the military special operation conducted by the Russian Federation in Ukraine. Although the Swiss franc has the status of a safe-haven currency, investors give their preference to the "American". The factors listed above allowed the US dollar to strengthen across a wide range of the market, including the Swiss franc. We look at the weekly chart of the USD/CHF pair.
Weekly
As you can see, following the results of trading on March 7-11, a huge bullish candle appeared on the "week" with a closing price of 0.9341. During the confident and powerful growth, the pair easily passed the red Tenkan line, the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, as well as the black 89 exponential moving average. After that, the quote rested against the resistance of sellers at 0.9341, where it completed trading in the last five days. However, at the beginning of trading this week, the pair again demonstrated strengthening and is now trading above 0.9341, near 0.9355. If this continues, and this is exactly what is observed, the pair will test for a breakdown of another significant resistance of sellers, which is located at 0.9372. If this obstacle is overcome, the USD/CHF bulls will have no choice but to continue the rise of the quote to the next resistance level, spread out at 0.9408 and represented by the orange 200 exponential moving average.
If the bears are unable to restrain the growth of the exchange rate here, then the pair will go to the key resistance of sellers, which runs at 0.9472. In my opinion, in the case of an approach to this mark, it is here that the further direction of the course will be decided. After such an impressive upward movement shown at the last weekly trading, as well as the continued strengthening of USD/CHF after the opening of the current weekly trading, it is difficult to imagine what bears need to do to gain control throughout trading. Perhaps, only the appearance of a reversal pattern of candle analysis under the resistance of 0.9372 will signal a possible reversal of the quote in the south direction. However, given the more than likely Fed rate hike, it is hardly possible to hope for this, most likely, the pair's growth will continue.
Daily
On the daily chart, we see that the pair has already rewritten Friday's highs and is determined to continue the upward trend. In this case, the nearest target of the bulls for the instrument will be the resistance level 0.9372 already indicated above. If we turn to trade recommendations, then purchases look quite natural in the current situation, but it is better to wait for consolidation above 0.9348 and consider opening long positions on a rollback to this level. For this positioning option, I recommend monitoring the situation with consolidation and rollback to 0.9348 at smaller time intervals. Most likely, this week we will return to the consideration of the USD/CHF currency pair, for today this is all the information.