Analyzing trades on Wednesday:
EUR/USD on 30M chart
The EUR/USD pair made a rapid advance on Wednesday. The euro unexpectedly surged by almost 200 pips. There was not a single message, news, or publication that could potentially provoke such a strong movement. The price has settled above the descending channel.This indicates that the downtrend has been canceled and the euro may be rising for a while. Hopefully, forex traders have shifted their attention from the geopolitical background and will not react so strongly to any news from Russia or Ukraine. But this remains to be seen. One thing is clear for now: the euro is showing a strong upward movement which is opposite to the main technical picture. Tomorrow will be a very important day for EUR. On Thursday, the US will release the data on inflation, the ECB will hold its policy meeting, and Sergey Lavrov will negotiate with Dmitry Kuleba.
EUR/USD on 5M chart
On the 5-minute time frame, a clear trend movement was observed today. A trend is always good for traders. There were only a few trading signals during the day, but all of them were strong and profitable. The first buy signal was formed when the price broke through the level of 1.0932. A few hours later, the price reached the level of 1.0990 and rebounded from it. Therefore, beginners had to close long positions and open short ones. In the course of a downward cycle, the price dropped by 30 pips but failed to reach the target level of 1.0932. Therefore, it was possible to profit from this trade only by closing it manually. The next buy signal was formed near the level of 1.0990, and the price subsequently went up by another 80 pips, breaking through the level of 1.1059 on its way. Thus, this trade should have been closed manually in the evening. As a result, the profit on three trades could have amounted to at least 100 pips, which is an excellent result. As you can see, a trend can appear even when there are no fundamental and macroeconomic reasons for it. A trend movement is very important for traders. That is why we analyze various news and economic reports.
Trading tips on Thursday
On the 30-minute time frame, the downtrend has been canceled. However, the euro's unexpected rally has no strong reason behind it. Therefore, we can assume that the pair will resume its fall on Thursday. At least, it will go through a correction after a 200-pip rally it had today. The news background on Thursday will shape the market sentiment. On the 5-minute time frame, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0870, 1.0932, 1.0990, 1.1059, 1.1106, 1.1136, 1.1165, and 1.1228. You should set a Stop Loss to breakeven as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Thursday, the ECB will sum up the results of its March meeting, which will be followed by Christine Lagarde's speech. These events will trigger a reaction in the market only if the ECB head announces important changes in the monetary policy. The US will publish the data on inflation. In addition to this, negotiations will continue between Kyiv and Moscow. This news may also affect the movement of the pair during the day.
Basic rules of the trading system
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours, when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.