Despite the rapid rise in energy prices, caused by the decision of the United States to impose a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas, the pound was able to hold its ground. But this has nothing to do with the decision of the European Union not to introduce similar measures yet, due to Europe's excessive dependence on energy supplies from the Russian Federation. Rather, the point is that the dollar is overbought on the market, and the market needed some semblance of a local rebound.
So, it is worth paying attention to the complete absence of any corrective movement in the pound. And the reason lies precisely in the decision of the United States, which is extremely hypocritical and directed against the European Union. After all, Washington did not include uranium in the ban, which the United States buys from Russia for the needs of nuclear energy. While the volume of oil imports is negligible.
The United States not only does not buy gas from Russia, but also sells it for export. But the European Union is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. And it is quite obvious that Washington will demand from Brussels, and with it from London, to introduce a similar ban that could simply destroy the European economy.
Another risk factor for the single European currency is the strange statement by the Russian authorities about the possibility of suspending gas supplies via Nord Stream 1. So the risks for the pound are still extremely high, and it will obviously continue to lose its positions.
The British currency followed the market downwards, as a result of which the local minimum of the downward trend was updated. This step led to a local convergence of the price with the area of the psychological level 1.2950/1.3000/1.3050, where the downward cycle slowed down.
The RSI technical instrument in the four-hour and daily periods is moving within the oversold zone, which allows the occurrence of a technical pullback.
The Alligator indicator on H4 and D1 indicates a downward trend. There are no intersections between MA lines.
On the daily chart, there is a continuation of the downward trend from June 2021, where the sellers of the pound sterling still have great prospects.
Expectations and prospects:
In this situation, price stagnation in the form of consolidation within 1.3080/1.3135 may well serve for new price jumps. Holding the price below 1.3080 will touch the level of 1.3000. While holding the price above 1.3135 may cause a technical pullback.
Comprehensive indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short, intraday, and medium-term due to the downward cycle.