The bitcoin cryptocurrency surprised a lot in the period from February 24 to March 2. It was surprised by the fact that during the sharp aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the world, it showed impressive growth. Recall that before the start of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, we repeatedly said that the fundamental background of 2022 will not contribute to the growth of bitcoin and you can forget about updating its value for a couple of years. When the "geopolitical chaos" in Eastern Europe began, the chances of bitcoin's growth fell even more, since bitcoin is the most risky asset of all currently known to mankind. It should have started the fall in the first place. However, as it often happens, it turned out exactly the opposite. Bitcoin has grown by $ 10,000. What was it?
From our point of view, something happened that no one could have predicted. Unprecedented sanctions were imposed against the Russian Federation, many banks were blocked from accessing SWIFT, the central bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves were blocked, the Russian ruble flew into the sky, and the stock market simply collapsed. Naturally, in such a situation, ordinary (and not only) Russians rushed to save their rapidly declining assets. This also applies to shares of Russian companies and cash, which began to depreciate at an alarming rate. And since the US dollar is already quite difficult to find in the Russian Federation, the eyes fell on the most popular cryptocurrency - bitcoin.
Ukraine also added "oil to the fire". Exactly for the same reasons. There is a full-scale war going on in the country, respectively, investors are fleeing the economy. They also often run through cryptocurrencies. That is why we observed the growth of the "bitcoin" at a time when it should have been falling at the speed of the Russian ruble. However, the situation is changing now. Cryptocurrency exchanges are beginning to restrict Russians' access to cryptocurrencies. The first shock has already passed and those who had real capital and real opportunities to convert them into cryptocurrency have already done so. And now bitcoin can show the movement that was supposed to happen. That is, the fall. Earlier, we have repeatedly said that we expect a fall to the level of $ 31,100, where the future fate will be decided. This level is the minimum of last year, which was reached last summer. Presumably, mass purchase orders are located at this level, and investors consider it as a very good price for purchases. Therefore, if the bulls manage to keep the price above this level, then bitcoin will be saved. If not, the fall will continue with renewed vigor. So far, bitcoin has dropped only to the level of $ 39,000, which in the current circumstances can be considered just an achievement. However, there is another important factor. The price failed three times to overcome the level of $ 45,408 and the nearby Fibonacci level of 61.8%. That is, at least two strong sales signals were received. In addition, bitcoin failed to update its previous local maximum, which was reached on February 10.
The trend on the 4-hour timeframe has changed to a downward one. The price dropped below the trend line, below the Ichimoku cloud, and the $ 40,746 level. Thus, now the way is open for her to the level of $ 31,100, and we recommend selling cryptocurrency at this time. So far, there is no reason to expect a recovery of the "bullish" trend. Absolutely all factors, technical, fundamental, geopolitical, speak in favor of the fact that the fall will continue.