Yesterday the dollar tried to strengthen its positions against the yen and break through the area above the technical resistance of the MACD line on the daily scale chart. Unexpected weakness in the stock markets (S&P 500 -0.53%) on the eve of the release of US employment data sent the currency pair down to close the day with a loss of 6 points.
Good data on labor can return investors to risk (to purchases of stocks and the USD/JPY pair), but the Federal Reserve is again signaling a possible rate hike at the next meeting by 0.50% immediately, and strong employment data may have the opposite effect - investors will leave the shares. We can only find out what strategy the players will choose after the fact, after the release of the data.
So, the main scenario for us is still the growth of the USD/JPY pair to the signal - target level of 116.35. The departure of the price under 115.07 (high on January 18) will open an alternative way for the price to develop - a decrease along with the stock market, and the target here is 113.36.
In the context described above, the situation is neutral on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is formally in the negative area, but practically it is exactly on the border with the territory of the downward trend, from which it can turn up. We are waiting for the release of US employment data.