According to the results of March 2, the main cryptocurrency managed to reach $45k, where sellers subsequently became more active. As a result, bitcoin rolled back to the local support zone at $43.4k. At the same time, the asset retains chances to resume the upward movement, but for this, it is necessary to gain a foothold above $45k.
Leading cryptocurrency analysts are confident that by the end of March 2022, Bitcoin will reach $50k. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere consulting company, is sure that the war on the territory of Ukraine can become a catalyst for growth. The expert is sure that individuals, enterprises, and large companies are looking for an alternative to classic assets that depreciate against the backdrop of hostilities.
Chinese journalist Colin Wu also believes that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated the adoption of cryptocurrencies in Eastern Europe. Lark Davis agrees with this position and believes that European and Western sanctions are forcing big business and retail investors to buy Bitcoin.
Indeed, the number of unique addresses and the balance of BTC coins on exchanges confirm that the war in Ukraine significantly affected the interest of market participants in Bitcoin. Given this, it is likely that Bitcoin will be able to reach $50k. But for this, the asset needs to break through the $45k mark and show stability before the likely increase in the Fed rate.
There is every reason to believe that investors are ready to tighten monetary policy. It can be expected that the increase in the key rate is already included in the price of the asset and the market, but you can be sure of this only after March 16, when the regulator's meeting will take place. Bullish investor sentiment and strong demand for the asset in Eastern Europe could help BTC consolidate above $50k. But the Fed's decision and reaction to it will be key in this matter.
On the daily chart, the MACD is moving flat in the green zone, which indicates a large potential for a bullish move. RSI and stochastic continue to decline, which confirms the increase in the number of sales and the growing pressure of the bears. Given these factors, I expect the BTC/USD price to decline to the $41.5k support zone or lower, to $40.1k. If Bitcoin stays in this area and resumes its upward movement, then the probability of completing an inverted head and shoulders pattern will increase significantly. With this option, the potential for price movement is $54k. But to implement this scenario, it is necessary to break through the $45k mark. Bears tightly hold this area, and therefore the probability of a protracted flat period is very high.
But it is worth noting that, even if BTC successfully consolidates above $50k, the asset will need to go through another range of $50k-$56k before entering the operational space. Therefore, a breakdown of $50k will not significantly affect the bullish ambitions of Bitcoin, and the Fed's policy will become a deterrent for further price growth. Given this, hitting $50k at the end of March is perfectly acceptable under certain conditions, but a full-fledged upward movement is not.