US stock market rebounds but could plunge today amid hostilities in Ukraine

S&P500

The Omicron wave is obviously ebbing away around the world.

Global financial markets are weighed down by the full-scale war in Ukraine.

EUR/USD opened on Monday with a sharp 150-pips drop.

In the pre-market of the Moscow Stock Exchange, the Russian currency nosedived to 109 against the US dollar and to 119 against the euro, the all-time low.

The pivotal point in the world remains Russia's military intrusion into Ukraine. Notably, the Russian troops actively deploy all available weapons such as aircraft, missiles, combat vehicles, and guns.

There was a faint hope for the soonest termination of the attack over the weekend. The warring parties fixed the date for the talks at the Belarus – Ukraine border. The talks were scheduled for early February 28.

From the military viewpoint, Ukraine is holding its defense rigidly despite a huge advantage of the Russian military force. Russia cannot boast any success. The Ukrainian forces withhold the most part of the country and the capital city, Kyiv.

In the meantime, the Western countries introduced extremely tough sanctions against the Kremlin this weekend. Russian air companies are banned from flying across the whole EU. The EU also recalled passenger planes that had been earlier leased to Russia.

To make things worse, the Bank of Russia's assets kept in the US and the EU have been frozen. Thus, the Russian central bank could actually be deprived of almost $400 billion out of $650 billion stored in reserves. These funds might be retained for long and eventually lost forever for Russia. For example, the international court could issue the ruling that such funds should be allocated to Ukraine to make up for the losses incurred from Russia's invasion.

A few large Russian banks have been disconnected from SWIFT.

The Western allied have established a coalition that will detect assets of Russian tycoons from Putin's circle. The coalition will be entitled to arrest their real estate and yachts.

Ukraine has been provided with a new package of financial aid from the US worth $500 million. Besides, the EU is also ready to give away $350 million to Ukraine's defense.

Germany's authorities condemned fiercely the Kremlin's hostilities in Ukraine. For the time being, Germany is launching the project to build two facilities for handling LNG deliveries. The largest EU economy is interested in reducing dependence on Russian gas exports.

The UNO is holding an emergency assembly on Ukraine on Monday.

The EU authorities are discussing sanctions against Putin's spokesman Peskov, Usmanov, Fridman, Aven, Mordashov, and Roldugin.

Western tough economic sanctions against Moscow have already come in force.

Futures on the S&P 500 opened 2% down on Monday.

When it comes to Asian markets, Japan's stock indices are trading 0.2% higher, China's indices edged down 0.1%.

In the energy sector, crude oil opened today sharply higher amid the war in Ukraine. Brent crude spiked 5% to trade at $102.60 a barrel. The market expresses fears about termination or abrupt reduction of oil exports from Russia.

The S&P 500 is trading now at 4,384 in the corridor between 4,300 and 4,400. The S&P 500 rose confidently in the last two days of the trading week. However, the index could take a nosedive because Russia defied hopes that the standoff with Ukraine would be settled.

The economic calendar for the coming week will contain some macroeconomic data for February. On Tuesday and Thursday, traders will get to know ISM manufacturing and services PMIs. Analysts expect rather strong readings: 58 and 61 points respectively. On Wednesday and Friday, the market will be alert to the reports on the US labor market. The US economy is projected to have added 300-400K new jobs in February. The US Fed is due to release its Beige Book on Wednesday.

On the whole, the US economy is on a sound footing. The only headwind is soaring consumer inflation with an annual CPI at 7.5%. Investors are now pricing in the rate hike of 50 basis points in March. However, the US central bank might adjust its plans for the crisis in Ukraine. It will be clear in the run-up to the Fed's policy meeting slated for March 16.

The US dollar index is currently trading at 97.20. The expected corridor for today is between 96.90 and 97.50. The index opened with a gap upwards in response to the war in Ukraine. The US currency serves as a safe haven asset.

USD/CAD is trading at nearly 1.2780 in the corridor between 1.2700 and 1.2900. The pair could move downwards amid elevated oil prices. On the other hand, the Ukraine crisis prevents the pair to slip much lower.

Conclusion

All eyes are on the talks between Russia and Ukraine. Nevertheless, they will hardly end with a notable progress because the sides insist on polar opposite rhetoric. Even a ceasefire agreement would be a huge step forward.