Since the market opened, the Australian dollar has formed a downside window of 63 points, which completely covered all of Friday's gains. At the moment, the price is above the MACD indicator line, the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area and there is a possibility of closing the gap in the near future - today or tomorrow.
Our main scenario (after closing the gap) assumes the aussie's decline to the target level of 0.7065, then to 0.6950. But the Federal Reserve may surprise the markets - due to the tension in the geopolitical situation, the rate will not increase at the next meeting on March 16th. In this case, a rise to 0.7291 and higher in the target range of 0.7415/30 is possible.
On a four-hour scale, the price is below the indicator lines and the Marlin Oscillator is in the negative area. Formally, this is a condition for a further decline, but the whole question is in the timing of closing the gap. Retail sales data for March, released in the morning, showed an increase of 1.8% against the expectation of 0.3%, while helping to close the gap in the near future.