Bitcoin has once again proved its dependence on the geopolitical situation. As tensions between the Russian Federation and Ukraine grew, the cryptocurrency, along with the stock markets, updated local lows. Yesterday, on February 21, the asset once again made a bearish breakdown of the key support zone of $ 38.7k and is now moving towards the base area of the local upward trend. Taking into account the growing economic and political tensions in the world, the formation of a new, possibly deeper, the bottom should be considered as one of the main scenarios.
Updating the current situation on Bitcoin, it is worth highlighting the bearish correlation between cryptocurrency and SPX and NASDAQ. All assets ended yesterday's trading day with a sharp drop. At the same time, gold holds positions near an eight-month high and has been in the overbought zone all week. The fear and greed index fell by 5 points to 20 amid geopolitical tensions. All these factors indicate one thing: investors protect their capital and withdraw funds from risky assets en masse. In particular, crypto investors use gold-backed stablecoins to protect their money. This is evidenced by the sharp increase in the capitalization of the PAX GOLD label.
The main reason for the next collapse of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market was the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin to citizens. As part of his speech, the politician announced the recognition of the self-proclaimed republics of the DPR and LPR. Putin also announced the conclusion of a treaty and friendship, cooperation, and military assistance. The reaction of world leaders was not long in coming and Western countries announced full-scale sanctions against the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, the statement of the Russian leader was another act of aggravation of the geopolitical situation and only increased the likelihood of a full-scale military invasion of the territory of Ukraine.
As a result, the capitalization of the crypto market collapsed by 6%, to $ 1.8 trillion. Bitcoin is trading around $37.1k, where the local upward trend of the cryptocurrency was born. Technical indicators of the asset indicate the probability of a price reversal and an attempt to recover above $ 38k. The RSI stayed in the bullish zone and began to show upward dynamics, which indicates the activation of bulls in the area of the last strong support zone.
The stochastic oscillator left the bullish zone and ended up in the oversold zone, but formed a bullish intersection and will soon return to a safe area. These facts confirm the probable beginning of a local upward movement since the $ 37.1k zone will not be broken through the first time. At the same time, the number of short positions above $ 40k increases, which indicates pessimistic market sentiment. Most likely, the BTC/USD quotes will hit this level and resume the downward movement.
In any case, it is necessary to understand that in the current geopolitical situation, the analysis of the cryptocurrency market is of secondary importance. Investors will primarily look at the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis and its impact on stock markets. Given that the situation in Ukraine is far from over, we can expect further outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency market. With this in mind, there is no doubt that Bitcoin will continue to fall and the next key support zone will be the previous local bottom around $ 32k.
Glassnode experts warn that a mass purchase in the region of $36k-$44k in January-February, the cryptocurrency may come out sideways. In addition, more than a quarter of all wallets with non-zero balances are in unrealized loss. And the longer investors do not see prospects for the start of an upward trend, the more likely they are to start selling their BTC stocks. Analysts are confident that a combination of geopolitical and economic factors form the conditions for a "stable bear market."