The GBP/USD pair was also trading flat on Monday. This is clearly visible, no additional explanations are even needed. In general, the pair has spent the last three weeks between the levels of 1.3488 and 1.3643. However, over the past few days, the width of the horizontal channel has narrowed to 1.3580-1.3643. Of course, such a narrow channel is unstable, and the price can leave it at any moment. However, at the moment it has not done so yet. The main thing that should be noted now is that the movement is so unstable that the pair does not even hit important levels near which signals could form. That is, we have not only a flat, but also a lack of good signals. Macroeconomic statistics, which were just published in the UK, had no impact on the British pound. Despite the fact that the index of business activity in the service sector has grown significantly compared to January, the pound has not received additional support. It grew all night without this support, and in the afternoon it fell for no apparent reason. This is a typical movement in the horizontal channel. Geopolitics has not yet had a serious impact on the pound/dollar pair, but still it cannot be ignored, since in one way or another it affects everyone.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pairThe technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe looks almost identical to the technical picture of the euro/dollar pair. There was a slight upward movement in the first half of the day, but no signals were formed, since important levels were not reached. Then the price dropped to the support area of 1.3598-1.3603 in the afternoon, from which it rebounded. However, the upward movement did not begin after this rebound, so the best thing that novice traders could do was to manually close the long position in the late afternoon. Thus, Monday was pretty boring, if you don't pay attention to the geopolitical news. The situation in Ukraine continues to escalate and it is still quite difficult to say how everything can end.
How to trade on Tuesday:On the 30-minute TF, the pair continues to trade inside even the two horizontal channels that we talked about above. At the moment, the question is as follows: when will the price leave at least one of them? As you can see, statistics from the UK on Monday failed to contribute to this process. However, this week, in principle, there will be few important news and events. Therefore, in this scenario, we can get another flat week. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.3488, 1.3563-1.3580, 1.3598-1.3603, 1.3652-1.3660. When the price passes after the transaction is opened in the right direction, 20 points should be set to Stop Loss at breakeven. There are no interesting events and publications planned in the UK for tomorrow. In the US, there will be reports on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, but they can be ignored by the market in the same way as similar statistics in the UK today. The same goes for the indicator of consumer confidence, which is not that significant. Thus, traders will again have to follow only geopolitics and simultaneously try to find at least one signal in the flat, which has now formed in both analyzed pairs.
Basic rules of the trading system:1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.