Today, the cryptocurrency market made a slight pullback, triggered by the tense geopolitical situation and the numerous references to digital assets in the Fed report. Bitcoin managed to find the support at $40,000 and stop the fall of the whole cryptocurrency market. However, at the beginning of the American trading session, the asset began to decline again and broke the level of $40,000.
As of 17:30, the coin reached the local low of $39,700. Subsequently, buyers displaced the bears and the price again climbed to $40,000. The technical indicators show some signs of bullish weakness as the RSI is approaching the 40 mark on the four-hour chart, though it was much higher. This fact indicates an increase in selling due to the start of the American trading session.
At the same time, the stochastic has reversed, forming a bullish cross on the 4H timeframe. This indicates the appearance of a buyer, who is trying to defend the boundary of $40,000. However, the price will likely continue to decline today. The nearest target levels are $39,600, $39,000 and $38,200. Doubts about bitcoin to hold the level of $40,000 are due to the general market sentiment. Investors prefer the US dollar and gold during increased global volatility.
Although the trading day is not over, it is possible to draw several major conclusions. The figure of technical analysis Head & Shoulders, mentioned by traders, was broken during the breakout of $41,000. The price failed to break the level of the shoulders, indicating that the current pattern, as well as the target of $56,000 are not relevant.
The second important conclusion is related to the investors' sentiment. During the last two weeks the investors' actions are significantly affected by the macroeconomic situation. This fact suggests that large direct investments in cryptocurrencies and bitcoin are unlikely in the next few weeks. Precious metals and safer financial instruments will become top priority. At the same time, there is an outflow of funds from altcoins and their conversion into stable coins like USTD or USDC. Taking into account these facts, it is possible to assume that the main cryptocurrencies will update their local lows.
Moreover, Pantera Capital executives are confident that the cryptocurrency market has already bottomed out and a dramatic decline is unlikely. Investment Director Joey Krug said that cryptocurrencies showed a high level of correlation with the classic markets for nearly 70 days and then they gradually became volatile. Therefore, the entrepreneur is confident that the cryptocurrency market will resume its growth in a few weeks.
Joey Krug's position is supported by the historical context of the market, which makes it undeniable. At the same time, the current macroeconomic situation has a more profound impact on investors' behavior, and its scale is unprecedented. Besides, in a few weeks, on March 16, the Fed will hold a meeting to raise the key interest rate. The rate hike can be negative for the market. However, short-term pessimism is possible. Therefore, the forecast of Panter Capital executives is true, adjusted for the global situation and the Fed policy.
Overall, the situation in the cryptocurrency market is complicated. Major coins are declining following bitcoin, which in turn follows stock indices. Taking into account the external factors, the situation will not change dramatically in the near future. Besides, another pessimistic scenario is most likely in the cryptocurrency market.