Analysis of transactions of the environment:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair.
The EUR/USD currency pair was trading very weak on Wednesday and with clear signs of a flat. Unfortunately, in recent days, both major pairs have not shown the dynamics that traders expect from them. There is no trend movement now, volatility is weak, there are no trend lines or channels. Thus, the pair is in free flight and can move in any direction at any time with the same probability. Naturally, this type of movement cannot contribute to profitable trading in any way. But it is also impossible to predict in advance when the flat will begin. For example, a fairly important report on retail sales was published in America today, the value of which was almost twice the forecast. But the markets practically did not react to it in any way. Similarly, they ignored the report on industrial production. In the evening, another Fed protocol will be published and maybe it will affect the movement of the pair and strengthen it, but it will be late in the evening anyway, and we do not recommend opening positions so late when trading intraday.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair.
On the 5-minute timeframe, it is visible that now the pair has been practically flat for most of the day. As we have already said, there is no side-channel now, however, the flat is visible to the naked eye. There were only two trading signals during today. And the second one just started to form, but it didn't form until the evening. The first buy signal was formed when the price was fixed above the 1.1360-1.1370 area. After that, the price went up 19 points, which was enough to set the Stop Loss to breakeven. However, it was not possible to make a profit on this transaction, since the price did not reach the next target level, and the upward movement ended very quickly. In the American trading session, the pair returned to the area of 1.1360-1.1370, but this time it could neither overcome it nor bounce back from it. Therefore, no signal was generated. As a result, the day ended for novice traders in zero or minimal profit (if they managed to close the deal manually). In general, the day turned out to be very boring. There was also no important news on geopolitics during the day.
How to trade on Thursday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, the upward trend has been canceled, as the pair has not managed to overcome the level of 1.1483. However, neither a trend line nor a channel can be formed at this time, so it is impossible to say what trend has formed in the market now. The pair has been falling for several days after rebounding from the level of 1.1483, now it has been growing for several days. Therefore, the movements are now as unpredictable as possible. Moreover, traders do not pay attention to macroeconomic statistics. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.1279-1.1292, 1.1330, 1.1360-1.1370, 1.1418, 1.1449. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. There will be nothing interesting at all in the States and the European Union on Thursday. Only a couple of minor reports in the US, which are unlikely to be worked out or at least noticed by the market. A weak movement will likely continue tomorrow, close to the flat.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to generate the signal (rebound or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened near a certain level on false signals, then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade transactions are opened in the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session when all transactions must be closed manually.
5) On a 30-minute TF, signals from the MACD indicator can be traded only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
What's on the charts:
Price support and resistance levels are the levels that are the targets when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator(14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line - an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a signal source.
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners to trade in the forex market should remember that every transaction cannot be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading for a long period.