With the increase in tension in the stock market, the USD/JPY pair is more and more strongly correlated with it. Yesterday, the US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.58%, the yen weakened by 5 points, even against the fall of the dollar index by 0.31%.
In today's Asian session, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index is growing by 2.08% and supports the yen, as a protective instrument, in a weakened position. We believe that the growth of the stock market will be short-term, investors are unlikely to make serious purchases when there is exactly a month left before the rate increase. The dollar against the yen may not reach the target of 117.17 during this time, the signal level of 116.35 may be overcome (which, in fact, will not give a qualitative signal for growth to the target of 117.17), after which the price will reverse and form a reversal strong divergence with Marlin. The return of the price under the MACD line, a decrease under yesterday's low (115.27), will turn the price offensive to the support of the price channel line of the monthly scale at 113.33.
The price is below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator does not dare to go into the positive area. With a favorable development of events in foreign markets for the bears, a downward movement may occur today. The signal for a medium-term decline will be the departure of the price under yesterday's low of 115.27.
The price growth by the current moment is an alternative scenario. Its implementation can only be phased and associated with trading risks - first, an exit above the signal level of 115.88, then an exit above the level of 116.35.