GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD currency pair traded slightly better than the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday. Although there were attempts to form an intraday trend during the day. However, they very quickly came to naught and the pair showed a "wonderful" volatility of 56 points. Thus, there was not much to expect from trading. Nevertheless, the Ichimoku indicator lines came to the rescue. The price traded between them all day, alternately working out the first, then the second. Thus, after all, several good signals were formed. There was not a single important report or other event during Tuesday. Therefore, weak volatility is understandable.
Now as for trade deals. The pair bounced twice from the Senkou Span B line at the beginning of the European trading session. The first time it went up about 10 points, so the Stop Loss was not set to breakeven. When the price returned to Senkou Span B, it was just necessary to stay in previously opened long positions. On the second attempt, the pair managed to get to the critical line and reached it twice. Together with the extreme level of 1.3550. Thus, traders could take profits on longs and open shorts near Kijun-sen. The downward movement after the sell signal was also not bad and the pair lacked only 4 points to reach the Senkou Span B line again. However, traders could manage to manually close the short position. No more signals were generated that should have been worked out. Traders could earn about 30 points for the two deals that were eventually opened, which is not so little, taking into account the overall volatility of 56 points.
COT report
We would call the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound very strange. Professional "non-commercial" traders increased their short positions during the last reporting week, which led to a new drop in their net position. Now the green line is again below the zero level, which signals the bearish mood of non-commercial traders. At the same time, in December 2021, the green and red lines of the first indicator moved far away from each other, and therefore began to move towards each other, which signals the end of the trend. Thus, now there is also reason to assume that a new, upward trend in the pound has begun. However, the major players are not in a hurry to stock up on the British currency yet, therefore, from the point of view of COT reports, the new upward trend is not entirely unambiguous. It is quite possible that the pound will still try to fall again to the level of 1.3163 before starting a new trend. Here, of course, you need to turn to technical analysis, which visualizes everything that is happening in the foreign exchange market. The situation with COT reports is not clear now, so caution is needed when making trading decisions.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 9. Christine Lagarde once again confirmed the ECB's passive approach.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. February 9. 40 out of 54. 10-15 more letters and the issue of a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson will be put to a vote in Parliament.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on February 9. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, the pound/dollar pair settled below the weak upward trend line, corrected, but now it has returned to the critical Kijun-sen line. If there is a consolidation above it, then the upward trend will be able to recover, and the trend line will be rebuilt. Another rebound from the critical line may provoke a new round of downward movement to the Senkou Span B. We highlight the following important levels on February 9: 1.3439, 1.3489, 1.3550, 1.3586, 1.3614. The Senkou Span B (1.3471) and Kijun-sen (1.3557) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Also there are support and resistance levels on the chart that can be used to take profits on transactions. No important events are scheduled for Wednesday either in the UK or in the US again. Therefore, the flat may persist, as well as weak volatility. If there are obvious signs of a flat in the morning, you can decide not to enter the market during the day.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.