GBP/USD on February 8. Boris Johnson loses his supporters and his aides resign

Hello, dear traders! On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair tried to continue its decline, which started on Friday. However, it failed. The pair closed under the correction level of 38.2% at 1.3523. However, the news background did not affect traders' sentiment. Therefore, the pair returned to its initial level in the afternoon. The new closing of the quotes under 1.3523 will provide a chance for a fall towards the 50.0% Fibo level at 1.3453. However, this closing cannot be considered as a strong signal. Yesterday, the news background for the British pound was worse than for the euro. In the EU, Christine Lagarde delivered a speech at least, while there was no significant event in the UK. However, there is always a lot of news, rumors and speculation about British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. At the moment, for example, the British community is widely discussing the resignation of the prime minister.

Last week, five of Johnson's closest aides resigned their posts. Moreover, British journalists noted that Johnson had not appointed the corresponding employees to these vacancies. In particular, they said that some of the new appointees had previously been highly critical of the prime minister and that Johnson had no choice now. Several members of the Conservative Party have stated publicly that Johnson should resign voluntarily. However, Boris Johnson is not going to do it. Nobody in his place would do the same. The procedure for the removal of the prime minister is common in the UK. For example, Theresa May endured two votes of no confidence amid failed Brexit negotiations. In the end, May resigned under pressure from Parliament. Boris Johnson is likely to be in a similar situation. His approval ratings continue to fall steadily. It is probably the worst fact for a politician.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the correction level of 50.0% at 1.3457. However, bull traders failed to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Now, the quotes are again declining to 1.3457. A rebound from this level will allow traders to expect a new growth towards the correction level of 1.3642. If the pair consolidates below it, further fall towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3274 is possible. The impending divergence is not observed today.

COT report:

The sentiment of "non-commercial" traders has changed dramatically over the last reporting week. During this week, speculators opened 8,876 short contracts and closed 6,419 long contracts. Therefore, if a week ago the total number of long and short contracts held by "non-commercial" traders was almost equal, now it differs almost twice: 52484 against 31637. This fact indicates that traders' sentiment is bearish at the moment. Besides, it corresponds to the current situation, taking into account the daily chart. Major players' sentiment changes quite often during the last months, confirmed by figures of the first two columns. Therefore, it is better not to make any long-term conclusions now.

US and UK economic news calendar:

On Tuesday, the UK and US economic calendars are again completely empty. Therefore, the news background will not affect traders' sentiment today.

GBP/USD outlook and recommendations for traders:

I recommend selling the British pound if it closes below 1.3523 with targets of 1.3453 and 1.3384 on the hourly chart. I advise traders to buy the pound if there will be a pullback from 1.3457 with the targets of 1.3523 and 1.3609 on the 4-hour chart. As there is no news background today, inactive movements of the GBP/USD pair are likely in a limited range within the day.