During Friday's trading session, global oil prices showed strong gains. The price of Brent crude soared above $92 a barrel for the first time since the autumn of 2014.
Brent crude futures for April gained 1.02% to trade at $92.04 a barrel. WTI futures for March delivery rose 1.11% to $91.27. This could be the seventh consecutive week of price increases for both grades. However, since the beginning of 2022, Brent crude futures have jumped by 18%, while WTI crude futures have risen by 21%.
The main reason for the spectacularly positive oil trend is the prospect of further supply chain disruptions amid freezing weather across most of the US. Arctic cold weather and a widespread winter cyclone led to severe oil production disruptions and power outages in America's central and north-eastern states. Texas, one of the largest US oil-producing states, has been particularly hard hit by severe frosts and icy conditions. Analysts believe that further weather deterioration could have a negative impact on the region's oil and gas infrastructure and feedstock logistics, as well as encouraging higher fuel consumption.
The escalating geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and the Middle East also proved to be a serious booster for the oil market.
OPEC+ recently reached an agreement to increase oil production in March by the previously planned 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). Since the summer of 2021, the oil-producing alliance has permanently lowered hydrocarbon production limits and increased quotas by 0.4 million b/d each month in order to boost production at the fastest rate.
In their predictions for the future of the oil market, experts from the world's leading banks emphasise that the price of Brent will be able to continue to remain near the highs, supported by geopolitical factors and positive investor sentiment. However, market worries about the new COVID-19 omicron strain, the slowing global economic recovery and high inflation are unlikely to have a tangible effect on oil quotations.
Thus, Russian commercial bank Citi analysts believe that the price of Brent could rise to $100 a barrel by the end of this year.
Morgan Stanley, an American financial conglomerate, expects Brent will break through $100 a barrel after August 2022, amid low reserve levels, a shortage of spare capacity and little investment in the sector.
Bank of America predicts that the price of Brent will rise to $120 a barrel by July 2022. Economists say the main stimulus for the price increase will be higher demand for gasoline and limited refining capacity.