The crypto market is still dependent on the sentiment in the stock market. However, it failed to break above a strong resistance level. So, a small rollback of digital assets is associated with bitcoin's unsuccessful attempt to rise above $39k. It triggered the formation of an absorption pattern. However, there are signals pointing at the fact that the asset is not ready to break through the $39k-$40k area.
Bulls are gaining momentum as traders try to make a profit by opening positions near the bottom and averaging positions on BTC. As a result, a bullish pattern - the ascending triangle was formed. For this reason, the majority of traders were confident that the price could break through the level. However, judging by the daily chart, the pattern is built on weak candlestick formations, especially in comparison with the uptrend with the following drop. It signals the weakness of bulls and a high probability of the price hitting the bottom again.
Despite the drawdown, demand for BTC has grown. There was an increase in the volume of short positions. It seems that speculators are trying to make a profit on the sharp rise of BTC. This week, there are signs of a decrease in volatility and a drop in trading volumes. So, bulls may be accumulating strength to send the price above the target level.
The situation is rather unclear. The market is not ready for growth. The price may also hit the bottom. However, bulls seem ready to undertake a new attempt to approach the target level. I assume that BTC may move above the $39k-$40k area and even touch the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786. However, shortly after, the price is likely to decrease. So, the breakout will be false.
Crypto traders are cautious as the market is rather volatile. The price is projected to fall to the range of $30k-$35k. After that, it may hit another bottom. This scenario looks possible as BTC/USD is stuck at $38.7k. It indicates the need to increase liquidity in the range of $30k-$35k. For this reason, it is better to stay out of the market right now. The current situation is calm before the storm as BTC may soon advance sharply.