Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair stood in one place on Wednesday. In principle, this is the end of this review, since there really was absolutely nothing interesting during the third trading day of the week. The volatility at the time of writing was 20 points. Needless to say, with such an indicator value, there was even nothing to count on trading in principle, let alone some profit? The problem is that the markets simply refused to make any deals in the morning, and in just an hour the Federal Reserve was supposed to announce the results of its last meeting this year. We already said yesterday that the Fed meeting is one of the most important events for the foreign exchange market. Therefore, traders are just waiting for the results all Wednesday. There is nothing even to say about the technical picture on the 30-minute TF, since the pair formally left the horizontal channel, but in fact continues to move sideways. And it was quite difficult to guess where the pair will be in a few hours, since an increase in volatility and movement of points by 100 is expected. Perhaps even consecutive, in different directions. Also, a report on retail sales was published in the United States (ticked in the chart below) today, but there was no reaction to it.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
By and large there is nothing to analyze on the 5-minute timeframe. The pair has been in a 20 points wide horizontal channel all day. And it doesn't even matter where it will be in a few hours. There is not a single trading signal now, there was not a single trading signal during the day. That is, even if novice traders would like to take a risk and open positions before the announcement of the Fed's results, it is still impossible to do this, since there are no signals. You can only open a deal at random. Or based only on fundamental analysis. Since the probability of tightening monetary policy is quite high, the probability of the pair going down is also high, which means that sales are more preferable. However, we warn you once again that the movement in a couple of hours can be absolutely anything. Returning to trading during the day, the price crossed only one level – 1.1266 - which is no longer relevant now. And in principle, when the price is traded in a horizontal channel, most local levels do not give the necessary result.
How to trade on Thursday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, the pair is still in a sideways movement, but it is impossible to say where it will be by tomorrow morning. And even to assume it does not make sense. Thus, we recommend that novice traders look at the pair's location tomorrow morning and, based on this, make trading decisions, if appropriate. The key levels in the 5-minute timeframe for December 16 are 1.1186, 1.1227 - 1.1234, 1.1324, 1.1348-1.1355. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. The European Union will sum up the results of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. This event, of course, is not as significant as the Fed meeting, but it can also provoke a strong movement in the market. Reports on business activity in the European Union and the United States, as well as on industrial production in the United States, will clearly be in the shadow of the results of the Fed and ECB meetings.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.