Hi, dear traders!
Yesterday was the final trading day of November, so let us first look at the monthly chart. Today, the pair is likely to be influenced by several events. In the UK, manufacturing PMI data are set to be released today, followed by a speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. On the US side, the ADP non-farm employment change report will be released, followed by a speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the ISM manufacturing PMI data. The final event on the economic calendar is the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report.
Monthly
GBP/USD finished November trading with a steady decline and closed below the key level of 1.3300, complicating matters for bulls. The pair continues to trade within the Ichimoku cloud at this timeframe, with the 50 SMA line at 1.3195 serving as support. A breakout below the 50 MA and a monthly close below it is the main goal for bears. The pair would have to close above the broken support level of 1.3410 or the psychological level of 1.3500 for a new bullish trend to appear. The monthly timeframe indicates the pair is more likely to go down, but there are some chances of an upside movement.
H1
According to the H1 chart, the price found strong support after yesterday's fall towards 1.3193, with moving averages greatly influencing its course. The price reversed downward at the orange 200 EMA line yesterday and cannot break above the black 89 EMA and blue 50 MA lines, despite today's efforts by bulls. Both MA lines in the 1.33110-1.3320 area are pushing the quote down. This is not the best situation for position traders, as the pair is trading in the middle of the 1.3193-1.3368 range. Range traders could open long positions if the pair approaches the upper limit of the range, with downward patterns emerging. If bullish reversal patterns emerge during the pair's approach toward 1.3200, short positions could be opened.
Good luck!