Bitcoin rose slightly in value on Tuesday, November 23, failing for the second time to break through the $56,361 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci level. This unsuccessful attempt may cause a new increase in BTC quotes with targets located above the current peak of about $69,000.
Meanwhile, the news about El Salvador's plan to create the first "Bitcoin City" did not cause a new wave of purchases on Bitcoin. Therefore, I advise you to monitor the level of $56,361 in the coming days, as well as the wave counting, which, although not completely unambiguous at this time, can nevertheless help in forecasting. The breakdown of the $56,361 mark may indicate the readiness of the markets for Bitcoin sales and a drop in faith in its ability to grow in 2021, with only 5 weeks left until the end.
Recall that many cryptocurrency experts and analysts have repeatedly stated throughout 2021 that Bitcoin will grow to $100,000. There are only 5 weeks left for the execution of this option. And Bitcoin, of course, can show strong growth, but it is unlikely to be so strong that it will almost double in price in a little more than a month.
There are no fundamental signs of completion of the upward trendMany economists single out several points at once that may announce that it is time to get rid of Bitcoin since it will only fall further. Note that Bitcoin has not shown long periods of growth in its history (for example, 3-5 years). Usually, it grows for a year and a half, and then it is in the shade for about the same period. So experts believe that the fall of Bitcoin can be expected if inflation around the world begins to decline. This will lead to the fact that investors will stop looking for hedging tools. And one of these tools is Bitcoin.
Also, many economists single out such a factor as the tightening of monetary policy by the world's largest central banks, which will lead to an increase in the profitability of other, less risky investment instruments, such as deposits, bonds, stocks. Economists also do not rule out that the fall of Bitcoin may be due to the influx of coins to exchanges, which will mean high volumes of coin sales.
However, so far long-term investors are in no hurry to get rid of their coins. All of the above signs of the completion of the upward trend are also absent at present.
The current upward section of the trend still does not cause any doubts. The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive five-wave upward trend section, which began its construction on July 20.
However, the exit of quotes over the past two weeks from the reached highs may mean the end of the expected wave 5, which in this case will be shortened. At the moment, I'm leaning towards this option. Especially if Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $56,361 mark. If not, then wave 4 can still be recognized as a three-wave, after which the construction of the proposed wave 5 with targets located near the 74th figure can begin.
If the attempt is successful, the decline will continue within the first wave of a new downward trend segment, which may take at least a month or two to build. And Bitcoin at this time will strive for the $45,000 mark.