EUR/USD: the plan for the American session on November 15 (analysis of morning deals). The market is completely calm

To open long positions on EURUSD, it is required:

In the first half of the day, no signals were formed to enter the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. Very low volatility and the absence of important fundamental statistics led to a repeat of Friday's scenario - trading in a side-channel with an intraday movement of about 20 points. Most likely, nothing will change in the afternoon either, since it is also not necessary to count on macroeconomic reports on the United States. I recommend sticking to the morning scenario and trading from the levels.

The manufacturing index will not help much. Therefore, to return to the bull market during the American session, it is necessary to get beyond the new resistance of 1.1474, since only this scenario will stop the downward trend of the pair. The reverse test of 1.1474 from top to bottom after the publication of the report on the production index will give an entry point into long positions based on the growth of EUR/USD in the area of 1.1514. The fact that trading is conducted in the area of moving averages indicates the possibility of implementing such a scenario. A breakout of 1.1514 and a top-down test will lead to an additional buy signal and the pair will grow to a maximum of 1.1562, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.1607 area. In case of a return of pressure on EUR/USD in the afternoon, only the formation of a false breakdown in the 1.1435 area will limit the fall of the euro and lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions with the aim of an upward correction. In the absence of an activity scenario at 1.1435, it is best to wait for the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.1379. However, it is possible to open long positions on EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the minimum of 1.1330, counting on a correction of 15-20 points inside the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears, although they control the market, so far there is not much activity from them either. A sluggish attempt to get close to the 1.1435 support in the first half of the day did not lead to anything, so it remains a guideline. However, bears also need to keep in mind the protection of the 1.1474 level. The entire calculation in the afternoon will be on good data on the US manufacturing index and the formation of a false breakdown at 1.1474. This forms the first signal to open short positions, which will give an excellent point to the market to reduce to the support of 1.1435. A breakdown and test of this area from the bottom up will increase pressure on EUR/USD and lead to the demolition of several stop orders of buyers counting on a larger upward correction last Friday. This will open the way to new lows: 1.1379 and 1.1330. I recommend fixing profits on short positions there. Under the scenario of euro growth during the American session and the absence of bear activity in the area of 1.1474, I advise you to postpone sales until the test of the next resistance of 1.1514. But even there, it is best to open short positions after the formation of a false breakdown. The best option for selling EUR/USD immediately on a rebound will be a maximum in the area of 1.1562. You can count on a downward correction of 15-20 points.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for November 2 recorded a reduction in both short and long positions, which led to a slight recovery of the negative delta, as more sellers left the market than buyers. The meetings of central banks, which last week fueled the markets, did not lead to significant changes, as the specific policy of the Federal Reserve System regarding measures to support the economy allowed investors to remain optimistic and believe in the continuation of the economic recovery. However, expectations that the European Central Bank, despite all its statements, will also be forced to resort to measures to tighten its policy in the near future due to high inflation, leave a chance for buyers of the euro to restore the trading instrument in the medium term. This leads to the fact that with each significant decline in the European currency, the demand for it returns quite actively. In the near future, we will get acquainted with important data on inflation in the United States, which will determine the future direction of the US dollar against several other world currencies. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 196,880 to the level of 191,496, while short non-commercial positions fell from the level of 208,136 to the level of 197,634. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position recovered slightly and amounted to -6,388 against -11,256. The weekly closing price decreased quite slightly, to the level of 1.1599 against 1.1608.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to somehow influence the situation with the fall of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1465 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1435 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators