The current trading week for the cryptocurrency market began with the establishment of a new capitalization record at around $3 trillion. This process was accompanied by Ethereum's new ATH, while Bitcoin gained a foothold above the $64.5k mark. And as of 09:30 UTC on November 9, Bitcoin also updated its maximum at $68.4k. And judging by the forecasts of leading banks and on-chain metrics, the bullish rally is only in the initial stage and the coin will still be able to surprise us.
The main reason for the positive forecasts for the near future is the statistics on all Bitcoin coins in circulation. According to the latest data, out of 18 million BTC coins, only 1.31 million (6.3%) are on exchanges and are available for purchase. The rest of the cryptocurrencies are on investors' wallets, which indicates an unprecedented level of coin ownership.
Also, note that the number of assets on cryptocurrency platforms continues to decline, even despite setting new records. This is a good bullish signal, since usually when establishing ATH, some investors (usually long-term) begin to take profits which results in the increase in the number of coins on the exchanges, which additionally put pressure on the price. With the current bullish rally, there is no profit-taking trend, which is a clear signal that the market is set to continue price growth.
Another important takeaway from the current behavior of market players is the maturity of Another important conclusion from the current behavior of bitcoin market players is the maturity of the current audience and the absence of a pronounced tendency to impulsive decisions. Thanks to this, the cryptocurrency becomes less volatile and more consistent.
JPMorgan experts partially agree with this, believing that the current Bitcoin rally will last until the end of 2021. Moreover, analysts maintain their forecast for the end of the trading year and believe that the asset will reach $146k. At the same time, the report mentions that in 2022, a sharp rollback of Bitcoin to $73k is possible if the digital asset fails to reduce volatility by 3-4 times.
However, Goldman Sachs experts are confident that the crypto volatility index decreases as Bitcoin is accepted as a class asset. It is important to note here a similar position of JPMorgan, which also recognize cryptocurrency as a class asset with a long-term upward trend and great prospects. This indicates that the main digital crypto asset is on the way to reducing volatility due to comprehensive recognition and use, and therefore there is every reason to believe that the bank will change its Bitcoin forecast for 2022.
Meanwhile, digital gold is successfully implementing the JPMorgan scenario and is moving towards the $145k mark. As of 09:30 UTC, the coin has risen by 3% and reached a new ATH at $68.4k. Now the cryptocurrency is in the stage of local correction after a powerful breakthrough to a new record.
The four-hour chart shows that bitcoin tried to continue growing, but the formation of the lower wick of an uncertain green candle indicates the activation of sellers and increased pressure on the asset. The next candle is likely to turn out to be bearish and will be followed by a further decline to the support zone at $67.4k, which served as a resistance zone. The nearest local purchase zones are at $66k, $63.3k, and more stable help shelves at $61.5k-$62k and $56,500 and $53,500.
Technical indicators are still in the overbought zone, but they are beginning to decline, which indicates a weakening of buyers' positions and a loss of strength by the medium-term upward trend. The MACD is still moving upside, but the stochastic oscillator has formed a bearish intersection and is starting a downward movement, as is the relative strength index, indicating the beginning of a correction due to the overheating of the asset at this price segment.
On the daily chart, bitcoin formed a powerful bullish candle, thanks to which the breakout of the previous ATH line took place and the subsequent establishment of a new maximum. Technical indicators are in no hurry to turn around, focusing more on the flat, which also indicates a local correction. The MACD formed a bullish intersection, which is a bullish signal for further price growth, and the stochastic turned sharply sideways, which indicates a weakening of the current bullish momentum.
Despite the ambiguity of technical analysis, bitcoin is within the framework of a powerful long-term upward trend and the market understands this without fixing profits. Most likely, by the end of this week, the cryptocurrency will reach the next Fibo resistance zone around $74.8k, after which a deeper correction will begin, which will allow to collect liquidity from lower price ranges.