Yesterday, the euro was incurring losses although it was falling at a slow pace. US macroeconomic data was behind a weaker euro. Firstly, the house price index dropped to 18.5% versus 19.2%, missing market expectations of a 19.5% rise. Amid growing global prices that jeopardize the world economy, even a small decline in figures is seen as an extremely positive factor. Even if it is just about the house price index that has little impact on inflation. Lastly, new home sales soared by 14.0%, beating market forecasts of a 1.0% increase. Such a sharp rise in the reading became the main reason for the strengthening of the greenback. Why did the euro plunge then? It tumbled because of the ECB's upcoming monetary policy meeting. Given the uncertainty surrounding its outcome, investors are not ready to risk and prefer to stay cautious.
United States New Home Sales:
Today, however, the US dollar is likely to lose some of its earlier gains due to a 0.8% fall in durable goods orders. This indicator determines future consumer spending, which, in turn, is the main driver of the American economy. Therefore, amid the possibility of a decrease in consumer spending, the greenback is expected to go down.
United States Durable Goods Orders:
The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the lower boundary of the previously broken-out sideways channel of 1.1620/1.1669, signaling the likelihood of a reversal where market participants are likely to restore a corrective move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located at lower levels, indicating a downward trend.
On the daily chart, there is a bearish trend that started in early June, where a correction could not change the current price movement.
Outlook:
The pair is expected to move sideways in the 1.1590/1.1625 range. In case of consolidation below 1.1580, a signal will appear indicating an increase in the volume of short positions.
In terms of complex indicator analysis, there is a sell signal for short-term and intraday trading because the price is moving below the previously broken-out sideways channel.