GBP/USD: plan for the US session on September 29 (analysis of morning deals). The pound continues to lose ground due to the fuel crisis.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3521 and recommended making decisions on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened in the end. The breakout and reverse test of this level from the bottom up led to the formation of an excellent entry point into short positions. As a result, the pressure on the pound remained, and at the time of writing the forecast, the drop was already more than 50 points from the entry point. It is best to continue to sell the British pound on corrections or after breaking through the next major levels, which we will talk about below. Yesterday, during the American session, we were waiting for another speech by the Federal Reserve System representatives, who may touch on monetary policy and further tip the scales in favor of buyers of the US dollar. It will put additional pressure on the GBP/USD pair and lead to a test of the minimum 1.3485 and 1.3452, where it will be possible to observe the activity of buyers again. The formation of false breakouts at these levels forms a signal to open long positions against such a large bear market, which I would not recommend since it is unnecessary to count on growth in these conditions. An equally important task for buyers will be a breakthrough and a reverse test from top to bottom of the 1.3521 level, which acted as support this morning. Only such a scenario will form a new entry point into long positions based on an upward correction to the resistance of 1.3550, above which the moving averages are located, playing on the sellers' side. I recommend fixing profits there. A more distant target will be the 1.3586 area. If the pressure on GBP/USD returns during the US session and the bulls do not show anything around 1.3485 and 1.352, it is best to shift your attention to protecting the new support of 1.3372. There you can open long positions immediately for a rebound based on an upward correction of 15-20 points within a day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the British pound coped with their next task and failed this week's lows, keeping the market under their control. While the risk of deterioration of the political and economic situation in the United States due to problems with the US debt limit will be present, pressure on risky assets, including the British pound, will remain. The initial task of the bears is to protect the resistance of 1.3521, to which the pair can recover today after the speech of the Fed representatives. Only the formation of a false breakdown at this level in the afternoon will return the pressure on the pound, which will push it back to a minimum of 1.3485. A breakout and a test of this area from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions, which will bring GBP/USD even lower - to 1.3452, and then to a large local minimum of 1.3372. It will be possible to talk about such a strong bear market in the case of hawkish statements by the Federal Reserve System representatives on tightening monetary policy and aggravating the situation around the fuel crisis in the UK. In the absence of active actions of bears around 1.3521, I advise you to postpone sales to a large resistance of 1.3550. I also recommend opening short positions from there only if a false breakdown is formed. It is possible to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from the maximum in the area of 1.3586, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within a day.

The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for September 21 recorded both a sharp increase in short ones and an increase in those who bet on further growth of the pound. The meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy, which took place last week, significantly influenced the mood of buyers of risky assets. The decision to raise rates in November this year will support the pound buyers in any serious downward corrections of the pair, so it is best to bet on the growth of GBP/ USD in the medium term. Worsening inflation may force the Bank of England to act more aggressively, which is also an additional signal to buy the pound. The only problem that stands in the bulls' way is the Federal Reserve System, although it is not going to raise interest rates yet. However, it is also going along the path of tightening monetary policy. The lower the pound falls, the more active buyers of risky assets will be, betting on real changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the future. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from 44,161 to the level of 51,910.

In contrast, short non-commercial positions jumped almost one and a half times – from 39,371 to 52,128. As a result, the non-commercial net position regained its negative value and dropped from 4,790 to -218. The closing price of GBP/USD fell 1.3837 to 1.3662 last week.

Signals of indicators:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of recovery of the pound, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3550 will act as resistance.

Description of indicators