GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the level of 23.6% (1.3692), rebound from it, and can resume the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3747). Closing the pair's exchange rate at the level of 23.6% will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3603). On Monday, the information background for the British was extremely weak. Although the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, gave a speech in the evening, he did not tell traders anything new. However, at the same time, news from the UK was received of a very negative nature. I have already said that due to the lack of truck drivers in the UK, there is a shortage of certain categories of goods. It was due to Brexit, after which the rules for staying in the UK for residents of the European Union and other countries were tightened. It led to an outflow of workers from other countries who went to Britain to work.
However, if earlier we were talking about replaceable goods, now we are talking about gasoline. Huge queues are accumulating at gas stations, which led to the introduction of restrictions on gasoline supplies. The authorities are going to repeal the competition law to establish fuel supplies. More than 75% of gas stations in the UK are empty. The British buy up all the gasoline available to them, pouring it into any containers and cans. Many gas station operators have introduced a limit on the sale of gasoline equal to 30 pounds. Thus, drivers from other EU countries are not going to the UK now, and the training of their personnel is complicated by the coronavirus pandemic and delays in conducting qualification exams. Let me remind you that this is not the first problem that arises against the background of Brexit, which ended on January 1, 2021. Earlier it was reported about problems with the Northern Ireland protocol, Scotland's desire to hold an independence referendum, and the fall in Britain's trade turnover with EU countries. According to experts, Britain lacks about 100 thousand truck drivers.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the corrective level of 38.2%. However, the growth process has already resumed in the direction of the same level. A new rebound from the level of 1.3747 will again work in favor of the US dollar and the beginning of a fall in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3642) on the senior Fibo grid. There are no new emerging divergences today.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - FOMC member Charles Evans will deliver a speech (13:00 UTC).
US - Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Jerome Powell will make a speech (14:00 UTC).
US - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver a speech (14:00 UTC).
US - FOMC member Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech (17:40 UTC).
US - FOMC member Rafael Bostic will deliver a speech (19:00 UTC).
There will be no interesting events in the UK on Tuesday, and several FOMC members, as well as Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen, will speak in the US. The information background today may be average in strength.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from September 21 on the pound showed that the mood of major players has become more "bearish". During the reporting week, speculators opened 7,519 long contracts and 13,107 short contracts. It allowed bear traders to catch up with the bulls in all categories of traders. In the picture above, you can see that the number of long and short contracts for all categories of traders now coincides. Although a week ago the situation was the opposite. Thus, the chances of the British dollar's growth are decreasing again after the latest COT report. Neither bulls nor bears have an advantage at this time.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend new purchases of the pound when rebounding from the level of 1.3692 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3747 and 1.3792. I recommend opening sales in case of a new rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3747 on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.3692 and 1.3603.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.