GBP/USD 5M
On September 27, the GBP/USD pair instead of trying to continue moving down and overcome the level of 1.3600, rushed, on the contrary, up. We cannot say that the upward movement was strong, but it was still during the day. Recall that the pound and the euro have been moving almost identically in recent weeks and even months, which is clearly seen on the higher timeframes. However, they moved differently on Monday. It should be noted that the pound nevertheless corrected much weaker against the dollar than the euro. Therefore, we hope that the pound will resume the upward trend. A speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was scheduled on Monday, but it took place late in the evening, so it had no effect on trading during the day. Now let's look at the trading signals that were generated during the day. There were only two of them. The first is a rebound from the Kijun-sen line - for short positions. After its formation, the price went down literally a few points and returned to the critical line, and then crossed it. Traders could have missed this signal, since the candlestick on which it was formed turned out to be very strong, so a short position would have to be opened too far from the point of contact with the Kijun-sen line. The second signal was slightly better. The price crossed the Kijun-sen line, so a long position should have been opened. Subsequently, the price went up by about 40 points, but at the same time could not reach the target level of 1.3732. Therefore, this order should have been manually closed in the late afternoon at a profit of about 15 points.
GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair is trying to continue its upward movement on the hourly timeframe. An upward trend line was built on the last two lows of the price, which now supports traders on the rise and increases the likelihood of further growth for the pound. We expect succeeding growth, but the consolidation of quotes below the trend line may provoke the resumption of the downward trend. Be careful! At the moment, the price has not even managed to return to its previous local high. Thus, from a technical point of view, an upward movement is no more likely than a possible resumption of a downward one. We distinguish the following important levels on September 28: 1.3519, 1.3570, 1.3601 - 1.3607, 1.3732, 1.3785 - 1.3794. Senkou Span B (1.3775) and Kijun-sen (1.3679) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. On Tuesday, there will be nothing more interesting in the UK, but in America there will be speeches by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. You can, of course, also highlight the report on consumer confidence, but it is unlikely that it will provoke a response from the market. Thus, everything will depend, by and large, on whether Powell communicates something new and important. Yellen's speech is also important, but unlikely to affect the course of the trade.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
Major players weakened their bullish sentiment during the last reporting week (September 14-20). Although it is now as neutral as possible. The fact is that the value of the net position for the group of "non-commercial" traders is now equal to 0 (approximately). Consequently, neither bulls nor bears have the initiative. Moreover, in the last couple of months, the mood of professional traders has been constantly changing, as the net position is either increasing or decreasing. Thus, from our point of view, the conclusion is obvious: the Commitment of Traders (COT) report does not indicate either bullish or bearish sentiment. The problem lies in the plane of the same level of 1.3600, which can be seen in the second chart even better than in the first one. The pair cannot go below this level, but it is not yet able to start an upward trend. Therefore, we need to wait for a new development of the level of 1.3600. Although this week it has already done so and another rebound followed. Therefore, an upward movement to the previous local high may begin next week. We also draw attention to the fact that the pound was unable to continue its downward movement even at a time when non-commercial traders were actively increasing their short positions. This "dip" in the net position below zero is clearly visible on the charts of both indicators in the chart. That is, the pound did not fall below 1.3600 even when it was actively sold by large players.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.