To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to purchases in the support area of 1.3672. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is visible how the bears unsuccessfully try to break below 1.3672 several times, but each time the buyers return the pair to this range, forming a good signal to open long positions. After that, there is an increase in the resistance area of 1.3696. The focus of the bulls will be shifted to this level in the second half of the day since the technical picture has not changed much. It will be possible to stop the downward trend only if the GBP/USD is fixed above the resistance of 1.3696, which was formed following today's European session. A breakout and a test of this level from top to bottom will form a good entry point into long positions with the aim of returning to the level of 1.3722, just above which the moving averages that play on the sellers' side pass. A more distant goal will be a maximum of 1.3748, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a decline in the pound in the second half of the day, an acceptable strategy for buying it will be forming a false breakdown in the area of a new low of 1.3664. If the pressure on GBP/USD continues during the US session, and the bulls do not show anything around this support of 1.3664 – the optimal scenario will be long positions from the level of 1.3633. But you can also buy a pound there only after the formation of a false breakdown. I advise you to open long positions in GBP/USD immediately for a rebound in the area of 1.3603 with the aim of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
The initial task of the bears remains to protect the resistance of 1.3696, which is now focused on the buyers of the pound. The absence of important fundamental statistics on the US will be in the hands of sellers, so the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.3696 will again weaken the position of the British pound and push the pair to the intermediate support 1.3664. A breakout and a test of this area from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions, which will bring GBP/USD even lower to 1.3633, and it will be close to the minimum of 1.3603, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the absence of active sellers around 1.3696 and poor data on the housing index in the US, I advise you to postpone sales until a new resistance of 1.3722. I also recommend opening short positions from there only if a false breakdown is formed. You can sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from a new high in the area of 1.3748, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates that the pound will continue to decline in the short term.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3664 will increase the pressure on the pair. In the case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3748 will act as a resistance.
Description of indicators
Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.