EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837) on Tuesday and rebounded from it. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the US currency, and a new fall began in the direction of the level of 1.1772, from which the pair also made a rebound a day earlier. The pair's quotes also closed over the descending trend corridor yesterday. However, the rebound from the level of 76.4% kept the traders' mood "bearish." The information background of yesterday, from my point of view, was strong or at least important. The only economic report of the day (inflation in the US) was of great importance for the future actions of the Fed, which will hold its meeting on September 22-23. Let me remind you that it is the indicators of inflation and the labor market that the Fed focuses on when adjusting the monetary policy parameter. Thus, a significant change in inflation in August could mean that the Fed would be forced to make drastic decisions in a week. However, the consumer price index in August remained virtually unchanged and amounted to 5.3% y/y and 0.3% m/m. The consumer price index excluding energy and food prices was 4.0% y/y and 0.1% m/m. Thus, both indicators slowed down compared to July. It is exactly what disappointed traders since a further increase in inflation would mean that the Fed is more likely to announce the curtailment of incentives at the next meeting. The US dollar fell to the level of 1.1837 after this report, but after a few hours, it began to grow again. And in general, traders again traded very weakly for the euro/dollar pair. All price changes fit into a 50-point-wide corridor.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782), a reversal in favor of the EU currency, and began the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890). Fixing the pair's exchange rate below the level of 76.4% will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1606). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - change in the volume of industrial production (09:00 UTC).
US - change in the volume of industrial production (13:15 UTC).
On September 15, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were almost empty. I think that today the information background will be weak.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders during the reporting week became more "bullish." Major players closed 837 long contracts on the euro and as many as 16,528 short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased to 191 thousand, and the total number of short contracts - to 163 thousand. Over the past few months, the "Non-commercial" category of traders has been actively getting rid of long contracts on the euro and increasing short. However, at the same time, the euro has grown very slightly during this time. A sharp drop in the number of short contracts may mean that speculators are preparing for new growth of the European currency.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying a pair with a target of 1.1837 when the quotes rebound from the level of 1.1772 on the hourly chart. Or when closing above the level of 1.1837 with a target of 1.1919. I recommended selling yesterday if there is a rebound from the upper line of the corridor on the hourly chart, with the target level of 1.1772. Now it is necessary to keep these transactions open.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.