EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair showed nothing extraordinary during the last trading day of the last week. Or rather, it showed nothing at all. There were no important macroeconomic statistics on Friday, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's second speech did not give traders any new information at all. Thus, it would be possible to conclude that the pair was moving with minimal volatility on Friday due to the lack of foundation and macroeconomics, if we did not know for sure that the pair has been trading in this mode for several months. It is interesting that with such a weak movement, one signal was formed on Friday. It was not strong, however, it could work out. The quotes reached the critical line and rebounded from it in the middle of the European trading session, although this rebound was very imprecise and indistinct. Nevertheless, if traders decided to work out this signal, they earned about 20 points of profit, since later the price dropped to the Senkou Span B line, around which it ended the week. Thus, traders could have finished the week on a positive note.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair was in a triangle on the hourly timeframe, left it on Friday, but immediately ran into resistance in the form of the Kijun-sen line, and as a result is now stuck between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. just below the Ichimoku cloud, the point is that they have been moving sideways in the past few days. The downward trend line is no longer relevant as the price crossed it on Friday. However, this breakthrough did not help traders in any way, because with equal probability the pair can continue to move down and start a new upward movement. We continue to expect a resumption of the global upward trend, but with the current volatility, it can be expected for a very long time. On Monday, we continue to draw traders' attention to important levels and lines - 1.1750, 1.1805, 1.1857, 1.1894, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1817) and Kijun-sen (1.1845) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There are no major events or publications scheduled in the European Union and the United States on September 13. Thus, there is very little chance that a strong movement will suddenly start on Monday. This means, most likely, we will again expect a movement of 40-50 points a day, on which it will be very difficult to make money, and we will have to work on pure technique.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair increased by 75 points during the last reporting week (August 31 - September 6). But the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, which for several months in a row signaled a decrease in the net position of non-commercial traders, just before level 0 (the first indicator) stopped selling the European currency. That is, at this time the number of open long and short positions in the "non-commercial" group is practically the same, which indicates the neutral mood of this group. Formally, it remains bullish, since a slightly larger number of buy contracts (longs) are still concentrated in the hands of large players, but this advantage is small. Thus, the COT reports do not currently answer the most important questions. Namely: will the bears be able to overcome the 1.1700 level to try to form a downward trend? Are the bulls ready to start forming a new upward trend? During the reporting week, professional traders closed less than a thousand Buy contracts (longs) and 16.5 thousand Sell contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position grew by 15,000 at once, and the mood became a little more bullish. However, one should not forget about the Fed factor as well. Let us remind you that if money injections into the American economy continue, this will further lead to an increase in the money supply and to natural inflation of the dollar. That is, no matter how the players get rid of the European currency, if the Federal Reserve continues to print $120 billion a month, this will not lead to a strong dollar growth and, rather, vice versa. Take note that the stock market is growing rapidly at this time. This means that most of the money that came into the economy from the Fed flows into the stock market. If investors stop buying shares, this could lead to an excess of free money supply, which will provoke a new fall in the dollar.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.