The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD remains the same. The pair still passes no more than 50 points per day, which does not allow making any changes. In the last few days, we have seen a slight decline in quotes, which was caused by an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Thus, the construction of a downward wave, which may be wave b as part of an upward trend section, is now presumably continuing. The first wave of this section does not yet give grounds to conclude that it will turn out to be impulsive. So far, everything looks as if we will see a new corrective trend section, three-wave or five-wave, it does not matter. But with the corrective status, the quotes of the currency pair are unlikely to be able to continue rising above the 42nd figure, near which the construction of the previous upward trend section was completed. I am also not considering the option of complicating the downward trend section and do not expect a strong decline in the pair. And an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level may mark the completion of the construction of wave b.
The news background for the EUR/USD pair on Thursday was in the average strength, so to speak. On the one hand, the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank were summed up, and on the other hand, no changes were made to the monetary policy. The key results of the meeting are as follows: The ECB raised its GDP forecast for 2021 to 5%. The ECB indicated that the current levels of inflation are still not sufficient to curtail economic stimulus. The regulator said that the economy, as a whole, is recovering at a good pace and by the end of the year may exceed the levels that were before the crisis. At the same time, the regulator fears the negative impact of the delta strain of coronavirus and expresses concern about the increase in cases of the disease in the EU countries.
The most important thesis was the phrase that in the next months, the pace of asset purchases is LIKELY to be lower than in the first two quarters. Actually, these are all the important theses that we managed to get. The markets did not react in any way to all the information from the ECB. The instrument's amplitude was 17 basis points. In addition to the ECB meeting, a report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits was released in America. However, the number of first time and continuing claims almost completely coincided with the expectations of the markets, so there was also no reaction. Thus, I believe that now the level of 1.1805 is much more important, to which the quotes of the instrument have fallen and near which the construction of wave b can be completed.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% Fibonacci level. So now, I'm still waiting for the construction of an upward set of waves. Therefore, I still advise buying the pair with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2027 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up". An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 1.1805, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci level, will indicate the readiness of the markets to build a wave b.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.