As already noted in today's two previous articles on the euro and the pound, the US dollar came under quite strong selling pressure at yesterday's trading. Since both currencies from this pair are considered protective assets, yesterday's strong decline in USD/CHF can be linked to a decrease in market participants' concerns about the spread of COVID-19, as well as the official approval of Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines in the United States of America. If we briefly touch on the fundamental component, then everyone is waiting for the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) at the economic forum in Jackson Hole. Market participants expect to receive more specific information about the timing of the start of the reduction of the asset purchase program. Today, investors' attention will be focused on data from the United States on orders for durable goods, which will be released at 13:30 London time.
Daily
After the Ichimoku indicator came out of the cloud and fixed three consecutive daily candles above its upper border, the pair decided to turn back in the south direction and returned to the cloud limits. In my articles, I often mention that the consolidation can be judged by three consecutive closed candles below or above one or another passed obstacle. However, it also happens that after closing three consecutive candles, the exchange rate returns to normal. It is what happened with the dollar/franc currency pair. A characteristic feature of the USD/CHF pair is that it works out the levels very clearly. In other words, strong levels restrain the movement of the exchange rate, and in case of their breakdown, a rollback follows, after which the price turns back towards the breakdown. In this situation, the mark of 0.9100 acts as a strong support level, and this was once again confirmed at yesterday's trading. It is characteristic that the mark of 0.9100 coincides with the lower limit of the daily cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, which only strengthens this support level. Today, at the moment of writing the article, the pair is growing. But the resistance is at the level of 0.9205, and it is also quite strong and does not let the pair go higher yet.
Let's move on to considering trading options for opening positions. Since the foreign exchange market situation is highly ambiguous, and the pair is trading in a relatively narrow trading range, I suggest waiting for the exit from it and only after that make decisions about entering the market. In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.9100 and an exit down from the Ichimoku indicator cloud, the opening of short positions can be considered on a rollback to 0.9100. A confirmation signal will be the appearance of bearish reversal patterns of candle analysis on this or smaller time intervals. The same strategy can be used in a true breakdown of the resistance level of 0.9205. In this situation, we are waiting for consolidation on H4 and (or) H1, and after a rollback to the area of 0.9205, we try to open long positions. Given the upcoming symposium in Jackson Hole and the uncertainty prevailing in the market, I do not recommend setting big goals.