EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair continued very weak movements on Thursday. If you look closely at the picture, you can see that all the movements this week occurred between the levels of 1.1704 and 1.1772. The pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and managed to grow by 30 points near the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1704). Since then, absolutely nothing has changed, and the pair is no longer moving between 1.1704 and 1.1772 but between the levels of 1.1723 and 1.1747. Thus, at this time, it is not even necessary to talk about closures or rebounds from any level. We need to wait for traders to start trading more actively again so that the pair at least moves from its place. During yesterday, the information background was weak. But not so weak that the pair showed movement in a 25-point-wide corridor.
The report on industrial production in the European Union turned out weaker than traders' expectations, but there was no movement after it. The producer price index in the United States rose more than expected. However, this report did not have any impact on the mood of traders. The same applies to the report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Thus, it seems that traders are waiting for some important event that can become an impetus for further movement. It will be very difficult for the US currency to continue growing if all the statements of the Fed board members about their readiness to vote for curtailing the QE program in the coming months are not confirmed by Jerome Powell. He has remained silent on this issue in recent months. However, there will soon be a symposium at Jackson Hole, at which Powell will have to give a speech. Thus, his speech may move the euro/dollar pair from the dead point. However, the symposium is scheduled only for the end of this month. It is unlikely that traders will wait for this event for two weeks to start trading.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes were secured under the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). However, the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator worked in favor of the EU currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). This growth is very weak. However, the US dollar does not have strong support for the information background right now. Therefore, the hourly chart analysis, where there is a level of 1.1704, is more important.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (14:00 UTC).
On August 13, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are almost empty. There will be only one index of consumer sentiment in the US. However, traders have already shown this week that they do not want to trade and are ready to ignore much more important reports. Thus, it is unlikely that anything will change dramatically for the euro/dollar pair today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders practically did not change. Major players closed 625 short contracts on the euro and closed 3,028 long contracts. Thus, in the last seven weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by almost 70 thousand, and the number of long contracts has decreased by 14. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely, according to COT reports. And the past week gives reason to assume that it is the pair's fall that will continue, but at the same time, it won't be easy to close below the area of 1.1730-1.1760.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair with targets of 1.1772 and 1.1837 on the hourly chart if the quotes perform a rebound from the level of 1.1704. I recommend new sales if there is closure under the level of 1.1704 with a target of 1.1606. Or a rebound from the level of 1.1772 with a target of 1.1704.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.