EUR/USD: plan for the US session on August 12 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The levels were not tested in the first half of the day. Accordingly, it was not possible to wait for the formation of signals for entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart. The ultra-low volatility after yesterday's inflation data indicates that many traders do not have further benchmarks for trading. The situation with changes in the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank is not clear, and it is impossible to rely more on the current fundamental statistics. The data released on the volume of industrial production in the eurozone coincided with the forecasts of economists. Respectively, it will be possible to expect a further surge in volatility only after the release of reports on the US labor market and producer prices.

Given that the indicators may coincide with expectations, a strong surge in market movement is also unlikely. Weak reports should strengthen the position of the European currency, which will allow the bulls to cope with the first resistance of 1.1752, which will be the main focus. A breakthrough of this area and its reverse test from top to bottom will form a signal to open long positions to grow to the level of 1.1769 and then to the maximum of 1.1787, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant task for buyers will be the update of 1.1808. It is best not to rush into purchases in the scenario of strong US data, which should be much better than economists' forecasts. An important task for traders will be to protect the support of 1.1729, where the moving averages are just passing, playing on the buyers' side. The formation of a false breakdown will lead to the entry point into long positions, allowing you to build the lower border of a new ascending channel. In the scenario of a further decline in EUR/USD during the US session and the absence of bull activity in the area of 1.1729, I advise you to wait for the update of this month's minimum in the area of 1.1707 or buy EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the support of 1.1682, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears' focus remains on the new resistance of 1.1752. A reduction in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US will lead to a false breakdown at the level of 1.1752, which forms the first signal to open short positions in the expectation of the pair "hanging" in the side channel. A more important task will be a breakthrough and a reverse test of the level of 1.1729 in the area in which the moving averages are passing. Such a scenario forms a signal to open new short positions, which will push the pair to the minimum of this month 1.1707, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1682. In the event of a further upward correction of EUR/USD during the US session and the absence of bull activity at the level of 1.1752, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1769. It is also possible to open short positions only after the formation of a false breakdown. I advise you to sell the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points only from the maximum of 1.1787.

There are no obvious changes in the balance of power in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for August 3. Moreover, the lack of important fundamental statistics on the eurozone last week and the summer pause forced traders to take a wait-and-see position. The focus was shifted to the data on the US labor market, which was published at the end of last week. However, its results are not taken into account in this COT report. Thus, it seems that everything has remained unchanged. The market movement is again becoming bearish since the data on the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector turned out to be much better than economists' forecasts. It allows us to count on an earlier curtailment of the asset purchase program by the Federal Reserve System. Representatives of the committee have already started talking about this at the beginning of this week, whose speeches will continue throughout the week. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 202,245 to the level of 199,067, while short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 164,119 to the level of 161,060. By the end of this week, we are waiting for important fundamental statistics on inflation in the US, which can seriously affect the direction of the EUR/USD pair. Many expect that the rate of inflation growth will slow down. If this happens, the euro will regain its position. If the data indicate the continuation of the rapid growth of the CPI, the US dollar continued to strengthen its position against the European currency. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 38,126 to the level of 38,007. The weekly closing price increased from the level of 1.1804 to the level of 1.1874.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the upward correction for the pair.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility has sharply decreased, which does not give signals for entering the market.

Description of indicators