EUR/USD: plan for the US session on August 9 (analysis of morning deals). Sellers of the euro are actively defending the level of 1.1764 and are aimed at updating the lows

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level of 1.1764 and recommended that you decide on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what came out of it. It is seen how every time the pair approached this level, the bears actively defended it, forming false breakouts and entry points into short positions. And although the signal was not fully realized during the European session, the pair remained to trade in a side channel. The chances of continuing the euro's decline in the second half of the day remain quite high. From a technical point of view, absolutely nothing has changed. Representatives of the Federal Reserve System are scheduled to speak in the afternoon, slightly changing their views on what is happening in the economy after Friday's data on the US labor market. However, it is unlikely that any of them will focus on the need to curtail support measures in the near future. The focus of buyers today will continue to be placed on protecting the support of 1.1745, which is still the minimum of today. Only the formation of a false breakdown forms the first signal to open long positions to expect an upward correction of the pair. An equally important task for the bulls will be to return to the control of the resistance of 1.1764. Only a breakthrough of this area and its reverse test from top to bottom will form a buy signal to grow to the level of 1.1787, where the moving averages are playing on the bears' side. A more distant task for buyers will be to update the maximum of 1.1808, where I recommend fixing the profits. Under the scenario of a further decline in EUR/USD during the US session and the lack of bull activity in the area of 1.1745, I advise you to wait for the update of the next major low of 1.1715. Then buy the pair immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers still have all the cards in their hands. Active protection of 1.1764, although it did not bring success, it is evident that there are simply no people who want to buy above this level. If the Fed representatives casually mention changes in monetary policy, the signal to sell the euro will be implemented, and we will see an update of the next local lows. The main task of the bears remains to protect the resistance of 1.1764. The next formation of a false breakdown in this area will signal to open short positions in the expectation of a further fall of the pair along with the trend to the area of today's minimum of 1.1745. A breakout and a reverse test of this range will quickly push EUR/USD to the area of 1.1715. The divergence on the MACD indicator, which I spoke about this morning, has almost been played back. The indicators have practically returned to zero, another signal confirming the absence of euro buyers in the market. A longer-range target will be a minimum of 1.1682. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session and the absence of bull activity at the level of 1.1764, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1787, where the moving averages are held. It is also possible to open short positions only after the formation of a false breakdown. I advise you to sell the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points only from the maximum of 1.1808.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 27, the market continued to be skewed towards sellers of risky assets. Long positions decreased, and short positions increased, which led to another decrease in the overall positive net position. The results of the Federal Reserve meeting indirectly affected the direction of the euro. However, given the wait-and-see position of the committee, fewer people were willing to buy the US dollar. The data on US GDP and the eurozone were quite different: in the US, the report fell short of economists' forecasts, and in the eurozone, on the contrary – the indicator turned out to be better than forecasts, which led to the growth of the euro. However, this fact is no longer taken into account in the current COT report. Thus, it seems that the balance of power remains on the side of the bears. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 208,669 to 202,245, while short non-commercial positions increased from 162,847 to the level of 164,119. Only at the end of this week, we are waiting for important fundamental statistics on the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States of America, which can significantly affect the direction of the EURUSD pair. Good data will become a powerful bullish impulse for the US dollar, which will strengthen its position as the Federal Reserve System continues to refer to the weak pace of labor market recovery in its forecasts. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 45,822 to the level of 38,126. But the weekly closing price rose slightly from the level of 1.1791 to 1.1804.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating a further decline in the euro and the trend.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the euro rises, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1764 will act as a resistance. A break of the lower border in the area of 1.1750 will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a new sale of the pair.

Description of indicators