EUR/USD – 1H.
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling, and it secured under the level of 1.1772 by the end of the day. Thus, the process of falling quotes can now be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1704). However, at the same time, I draw attention to the fact that the quotes have performed a fall neatly into the area in which they stood a few weeks ago for a relatively long period, which is visible on the 4-hour chart. Thus, it is possible that the fall will not continue in the coming days. There will be no information background in the European Union and the United States on Monday and Tuesday. Thus, bear traders will have to look for reasons for new sales of the pair. But last Friday, they did not have to look for reasons for selling for a long time. All the reports from the US turned out to be quite strong, so the US currency quite deservedly grew that day.
Traders were most interested in the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which exceeded expectations and amounted to almost 1 million new jobs. Also, of course, I was pleased with the report on unemployment, which fell in July from 5.9% to 5.4%. The other reports of the day no longer had any meaning for traders. I can state that the data on the labor market in July turned out to be very strong, supporting the US dollar. However, it is unlikely that bear traders will sell the pair for a long period on just two reports. This week, traders have yet to find out the level of inflation in the US in July, which may spoil their mood because it has been accelerating at a very high pace in recent months. And it is quite possible that according to the results of the last reporting month, it will also grow, although forecasts say the opposite. In general, although the price drop has started in recent days, I am not sure that it will continue.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes were fixed under the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782), but earlier, this level had already let the pair below itself several times. However, bear traders could not move below the level of 1.1760. Thus, although the chances of continuing the fall are growing, I would not rush to these conclusions. There may be a rebound from the level of 1.1760 again, which will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1890).
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On August 9, the calendar of economic events in the European Union and America does not contain a single interesting entry. Thus, the information background will be completely absent today. Traders will be waiting for important news on Wednesday.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders practically did not change. Major players closed 625 short contracts on the euro currency and closed 3,028 long contracts. Thus, in the last seven weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by almost 70 thousand, and the number of long contracts has decreased by 14. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely, according to COT reports. And the past week gives reason to assume that it is the pair's fall that will continue, but at the same time, it won't be easy to close below the area of 1.1730-1.1760.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend new purchases of the pair with targets of 1.1837 and 1.1919 on the hourly chart if the quotes perform a rebound from the level of 1.1760. I do not recommend considering new sales yet, since the pair is located near the strong area of 1.1730-1.1760, from which it has repeatedly performed a rebound.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.