EUR/USD: plan for the US session on July 29 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In general, the morning session for euro buyers continued very well. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls achieve a breakdown of the resistance of 1.1864 and then test it from top to bottom, which leads to the formation of a signal to open long positions in continuation of yesterday's bullish trend. As a result, there is an increase to the next resistance of 1.1882, a couple of short of the test. For the second half of the day, the technical picture changed slightly.

In the second half of the day, the focus will shift to data on the US economy for the 2nd quarter of this year, where growth is projected to increase by 8.4% immediately. If the data exceeds the forecasts of economists, the demand for the US dollar will return. However, it is unlikely to remain for a long time. Euro buyers can take advantage of the moment and continue to build up long positions. The primary task of the bulls is to protect the support of 1.1864, which they easily took away in the first half of the day. The formation of a false breakdown during the US GDP data will lead to the formation of a new signal to open long positions to continue the upward trend. If there is no bull activity at this level, I advise you to wait to update the larger lows of 1.1843 and 1.1824 and buy EUR/USD immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day. At the level of 1.1824, there are also moving averages that play on the buyers' side. Thus, it will be problematic for bears to break below. In the scenario of EUR/USD growth in the second half of the day, the target of euro buyers will be the resistance of 1.1882. A breakout and consolidation above this range with a test of this area from top to bottom will form a signal to open long positions to continue the upward trend, counting on growth to 1.1904. The longer-term target remains the area of 1.1937, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers failed to cope with the task set for them and were unable to protect the resistance of 1.1864, which will be closely focused on in the second half of the day after the US GDP data. If the report exceeds economists' forecasts, we can expect a return to the support of 1.1864 under control. However, a breakdown of this level and a reverse test from the bottom up will form an excellent entry point into short positions, counting on the fall of EUR/USD to the intermediate minimum of 1.1843. A breakout of this range will also hit a number of stop orders of bulls, which will push the pair to larger lows: 1.1824 and 1.1799, where I recommend fixing the profits. If EUR/USD rises during the US session after the publication of US GDP data, the sellers' focus will shift to protecting the resistance of 1.1882. It is best to open short positions only when a false breakdown is formed. In the absence of bear activity, I advise you to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1904. You can open short positions only after the formation of a false breakdown. It is best to sell the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points only from the maximum of 1.1937.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 20, the market continued to be skewed towards sellers of risky assets. Long positions decreased, and short positions increased, which led to another reduction in the overall positive net position. The meeting of the European Central Bank last week undermined the mood of euro buyers. It became clear to everyone that the regulator will not rush to tighten monetary policy and maintain the program of emergency bond purchases for as long as possible to stimulate inflationary growth to achieve its new goal of 2.0%. In the US, the situation is the opposite. Inflation has long gone beyond the target value, and many representatives of the Federal Reserve point to the need to abandon ultra-soft measures to stimulate the economy in the near future, which plays on the side of the US dollar. And no matter how the US central bank tries to convince investors that this is just a temporary phenomenon, the market continues to abandon risky assets favoring safe-haven assets, which is the US dollar. This week, we will publish the FOMC decision on the main interest rate, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar if the management seriously considers the issue of reducing the bond purchase program in the fall of this year. But the lower the euro falls, the higher the demand for it will be in the medium term since the attractiveness of risky assets will not go anywhere. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 212,851 to the level of 208,669, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 153,138 to the level of 162,847. In addition to the decision of the Federal Reserve System at the end of the week, we are waiting for data on changes in the volume of US GDP for the 2nd quarter of this year, where growth is expected to increase by 8.4% immediately. It can also become a powerful bullish impulse for the US dollar. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 59,713 to the level of 45,822. The weekly closing price fell from the level of 1.1862 to 1.1791.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the continuation of yesterday's upward trend in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1882 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case of a decline in the pair, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.1843 will provide support.

Description of indicators