The US dollar fell slightly due to durable goods orders data. Shortly after, it was trying to strengthen against a basket of six major rivals. Today, the most anticipated event of the week will take place - the FOMC meeting. Yet, many experts think that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to announce certain changes to the monetary policy. So, his testimony will hardly surprise market participants. Moreover, the Fed will clarify its position in the Jackson Hole meeting which is scheduled for September. However, investors are still awaiting the current meeting with bated breath. The main question is how the market will react to the Fed's meeting.
Currently, China's stock market is in the spotlight. It has collapsed significantly due to the ongoing tightening of regulation on large IT companies. Sharp fluctuations in China's equity market may adversely affect stock markets in other countries.
Hence, demand for safe-haven currencies is rising after the fall in government bond yields. Treasuries are declining despite expectations of the reduction in the bond-buying program. Usually, this would lead to an increase in government bond yields.
The greenback seems to have resumed bullish momentum. It may soar to new highs amid turmoil in the market. Besides, the US currency may strengthen if the Federal Reserve hints about the probable reduction of the bond-buying program.
The yen rose moderately following a sell-off in China's stock market. The rebound of the Japanese stock market from the recent low was much more modest in comparison with other countries.
The US dollar index is growing moderately before the Fed's meeting. Maybe traders have already started factoring in Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks.
The EUR/USD pair, as the main barometer of risk sentiment in the market, opened the trading day with a decline. Yesterday, it remained almost unchanged. The pair may even climb to 1.1900 if the Fed's meeting outcome does not stir panic in the market.
If Powell does not provide new comments about the bond-buying program, the euro will continue to fluctuate between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1800 with possible rebound to the 19th mark. Investors are certain that the Fed will not reveal anything new until the Jackson Hole meeting in autumn where it will discuss whether to raise the debt ceiling.
Experts believe that the euro will rally in the near future. For instance, economists at Commerzbank assume that the pair may return to the area of 1.1860-1.1930.
Strong resistance levels are located at 1.1884 and 1.2008. These level may halt the pair's growth. After breaking through 1.1750, the next target will be the area of 1.1704–1.1600.